Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 6th May)

Best Days: Most days should have great waves. Tuesday and Saturday for the most size.

Recap: Tiny surf on Saturday increased in Sunday with a new S’ly swell, though the biggest waves were limited to south swell magnets with 3-4ft sets. Early W/SW winds freshened from the south throughout the day. Today has seen a further kick in SE swell from a developing Tasman Low, with solid 6ft sets observed at exposed locations (mainly those south facing) throughout the day, with smaller surf at southern ends. Winds were W/SW early morning resulting in clean surface conditions, however we’ve again seen freshening southerlies throughout the day. 

Nice south-easterly lines at Manly this morning

Chunky sets on the Cenny Coast

This week (May 7 - 10)

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The Tasman Low responsible for our current swell is reaching maturity to the east of Bass Strait, and peak swell energy will push across the coast overnight into Tuesday. However the low will quickly ease at the same time, so surf size will drop steadily from Wednesday.

There’s a lot to look forward to over the coming days. In addition to a large swell - that should maintain 6ft surf at most south facing beaches on Tuesday, even pushing 8ft at some offshore bombies and reliable south swell magnets - winds will veer light W/NW as the low weakens and pushes off the coast. And the weather will be great too; fine and sunny all day.

The main change in characteristic in the surf from today into tomorrow will be a swing in the swell direction from the SE to a straight S'ly, which will exacerbate the difference in wave heights between exposed and sheltered locations. A slight easing may occur into the afternoon. 

Away from south friendly beaches, expect much smaller surf. However the models are keen on a secondary E’ly swell originating form the poorly aligned N/NE fetch across the eastern flank of a broad surface trough encompassing the Tasman Low. You probably won’t notice the 2-3ft+ sets from this source but they’ll be there in the mix.

Wednesday’s rapid drop in size will be accompanied by freshening W/NW tending W/SW winds as a front clips the southern part of the stte. The E’ly swell will also ease in size but there’ll be fun waves early morning in the 3ft+ range (south facing beaches) before size diminishes very quickly. 

Thursday looks mainly clean but tiny with moderate NW winds and small residual swell from Wednesday. However, the mid-week frontal passage through eastern Bass Strait is expected to provide a brief flush of south swell to south facing beaches; likely early morning with sets in the 2-3ft range at south swell magnets (with bigger sets across the Hunter region) but very little getting in elsewhere. The swell may only pulse for a few hours so if you see anything, pounce.

And to finish the week we’ve got a dynamic synoptic chart with an intensifying Tasman Low east of Bass Strait and a strengthening NW wind that’ll swing SW into the afternoon. We are expecting a solid south swell from this low but it may not arrive until after dinnertime Friday. Though at this early stage I can’t rule out a rapid afternoon increase in size. I’ll have a better idea of this in Wednesday’s update. 

This weekend (May 11 - 12)

Friday’s developing Tasman Low will be the dominant swell source this weekend. At this stage we’re looking at a peak in size early Saturday around 6-8ft at south facing beaches, with gusty SW winds keeping conditions clean, if a little blustery. Expect much smaller surf at beaches not open to the south.

Wave heights will ease steadily into Sunday with winds becoming light and variable as a high pressure system pushes across the region. Early morning could still be in the 3-5ft range at south facing beaches, but it’ll halve (or more) by the afternoon. Again, surf size will be smaller elsewhere. 

As such it looks like a good weekend of waves with something for everyone on offer. 

Next week (May 13 onwards)

Nothing significant for the long term. There’s been some interesting model developments in the Coral Sea over the last few days but I’m not confident it’ll develop into much of a swell generating system for anywhere south of about Ballina.

More on all of this in Wednesday’s update.