Downgrade for the weekend, but there are still great options next week

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 3rd May)

Best Days: Mon/Tues/Wed: strong combo of S'ly thru' SE swells, windy Mon but becoming much cleaner Tues/Wed as winds veer W/SW.

Recap: There’s been plenty of NE swell for the last few days, with size around 2-3ft at most open beaches. Winds have been generally out of the N thru N/NE though without quite as much strength as expected, so conditions have been quite OK at times. 

Lumpy NE swell at Manly this AM

This weekend (May 4-5)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

The fetch responsible for our local NE swell is weakening and rotating out of our swell window as a front approaches from the south, so we’ll see smaller, easing NE swells from Saturday morning onwards. 

As for the projected southerly windswell this weekend - there’s been a bit of argy bargy in the models, with a significant downgrade overnight Thursday, but a slight correction this afternoon. 

Essentially, the entire synoptic pattern is expected to be quite a bit weaker, slightly delayed and marginally more south in latitude than Wednesday’s model guidance indicated.

Although this has resulted in a significant decrease in size prospects for Sunday, we were only expected wind affected short period swells anyway (so, no great loss). And, next week’s SE thru’ S'ly swells are still likely to eventuate (though possibly a little smaller).

But, back to the weekend. 

A SW change will push across the region in the early hours of the morning, but a trough in its wake will cause winds to temporarily moderate through early-mid morning, before they strengthen from the S/SW into the afternoon as another front pushes through and the Tasman Low starts to develop. A small increase in southerly windswell is possible at south facing beaches but I don’t think there’ll be much more than couple of lazy feet of average, wind affected surf on offer.

Several fetches of strong southerly winds developing overnight Saturday (one close to the coast, the other in the central Tasman Sea) will generate building S’ly swells for Sunday that should reach 3-4ft+ at south facing beaches by the afternoon, though with gusty S/SW tending S’ly winds on top there won’t be a lot of quality on offer. 

Surf size will be much smaller at beaches without southerly exposure, so overall it’s not looking like a great weekend for surfers. 

Next week (May 6 onwards)

The Tasman Low developing over the weekend looks more like being a complex, elongated trough spanning the entire length of the Tasman Sea by Monday morning. 

Although this morning’s model runs completely downgraded early next week to 2-3ft or thereabouts, the correction in this afternoon’s model runs is much more plausible given the five-day model trend, and I think we’re looking at some pretty solid waves.

However, because of the way this system is evolving, we’ll see much different surf conditions compared to a typical swell front associated with a rapidly forming low or front that pushes through the lower Tasman Sea.

The weekend’s short range S thru’ S/SE energy will linger through Monday and only slowly give way to gradually building longer period energy anywhere from the S thru’ SE throughout the day and into Tuesday. In fact, the current model guidance keeps our broad, mid range swell window active through into Tuesday morning so theoretically we should see plenty of energy into Wednesday before easing steadily around Thursday.

At this stage I’m cautious about getting too excited in the size department (because of this morning’s major downgrade) but I still have confidence that we’ll see set waves pushing 5-6ft (or even more!) at the height of the event at south facing beaches, possibly later Monday but more likely Tuesday. 

Local conditions look problematic on Monday with gusty synoptic S/SW winds (scattered regions of early SW), but Tuesday is shaping up very nicely with lighter W/SW winds and rapidly improving surface conditions.

We’ll likely see size ease through Wednesday though early morning should still be quite solid out of the south.

Today's model recalibration has also significant reduced our E’ly swell prospects for next week: the fetch is still there, but it’s now expected to be a little more to the south, and a little more meridional (north-south) in orientation, so apart from the Far South Coast, I doubt we’ll see much swell spreading back into Southern NSW. But, I wouldn’t rule it out and will reevaluate more closely on Monday. 

Also, early next week will see a small undercurrent of long period S'ly groundswell from a series of intense polar low tracking below the ice shelf (see chart below). They're on the eastern periphery of our far south swell window (and lining up to deliver an excellent large swell for Tahiti!) but we should see a healthy spread of swell up into Southern NSW with 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches. 

In fact, all of next week’s swells are still subject to further upgrades/downgrades over the coming days, so I’ll try to update in the comments over the weekend if anything of major significance comes to light. Hopefully today's upwards correction is not itself an anomoly!

Otherwise, the long term outlook suggests more strong winteresque fronts approaching the region later next week, resulting in brisk offshore winds and fresh southerly swell potential for the weekend and beyond.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!

Comments

Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake Friday, 3 May 2019 at 5:52pm

It's been a good week for 'model variation'. The BOM had a nice easterly fetch set up early this week for early next week. All but disappeared now. But then again this is a pretty regular occurrence.

Anyway to help with some potential weekend blues I found this little 8 min compilation vid of the best of the best in the best from wozzle world.
(Background music supplied by viewer)

syril500's picture
syril500's picture
syril500 Friday, 3 May 2019 at 6:52pm

That was sick. The WCT naysayers might even like that?

Tenn's picture
Tenn's picture
Tenn Friday, 3 May 2019 at 7:44pm

CJ Hobgood came out 10 minutes after the spit at teahupoo must have had a coffee break in the pit

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Friday, 3 May 2019 at 10:22pm

and the year of no real waves continue

jpm87's picture
jpm87's picture
jpm87 Saturday, 4 May 2019 at 6:02pm

What is this "waves" you speak of? Does this phenomena occur on the south coast?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 5 May 2019 at 8:27am

Nice Sunday morning grinder across the Manly stretch (decent amount of size too, considering it's a south swell).

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 5 May 2019 at 8:58am

Freight trains on the Cenny Coast.

Solid but pretty bumpy in Newy.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 5 May 2019 at 9:06am

And here's the wind change at Cronulla! S'ly gusting 38kts at Wattamolla.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 6 May 2019 at 9:59am

Nice lines of south swell at Manly this morning.