Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 1st May)

Best Days: Windy but workable surf most days; NE on Thurs/Fri, then strong S'ly from Sat PM, Sun into Mon. Plenty of E'ly swell next week too. 

Recap: Tuesday delivered good S’ly swells to 3-4ft at exposed south facing beaches, before easing late into the afternoon and further overnight. Light morning offshores preceded freshening afternoon NE breezes, which kicked up 2-3ft of NE windswell this morning. Conditions have been clean with mainly light winds. 

This week (May 2-3)

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A stationary high in the eastern Tasman Sea will maintain northerly winds over the region for Thursday and Friday. 

They’re expected to be fresh at times (tending N/NE into the afternoon), which will cause surface conditions to deteriorate. However early mornings should see periods of lighter winds, possibly a touch N/NW in some places though mainly N'ly. It won’t be great but it’ll be workable.

The upside is that this airstream will concurrently maintain peaky NE windswell across the region both days, somewhere in the 2ft to almost 2-3ft range. Expect smaller surf at south facing beaches.

A slight easing in the size department may also occur Friday afternoon as the fetch weakens through the day.

This weekend (May 4-5)

A front is expected to cross the coastal margin early Saturday, swinging winds to the south though initially there may not be a lot of strength on offer.

However, we’re expecting gusty conditions into the afternoon, persisting into Sunday as a deep Tasman Low develops in the central/southern Tasman Sea. Winds should hold from the SW early Saturday but then tend S/SW during the day. Mainly S/SW winds are expected Sunday though early morning may see pockets of SW winds here and there.

At this stage, most of the weekend’s increase in surf size will be related to local winds, and therefore the swell quality won’t be especially high. Better quality groundswell is expected early next week from several sources, but despite set waves building to 3ft+ by Saturday afternoon and 5-6ft+ by Sunday (at south facing beaches, much smaller elsewhere), sheltered locations will be your only reliable option. Keep your expectations low and you'll find options at southern ends.

Next week (May 6 onwards)

We’ve got plenty of swell due next week.

A series of deep polar lows travelling along the ice shelf well south of Tasmania on Saturday will kick up small long period S'ly energy for Monday and Tuesday, peaking around 3-4ft at south facing beaches.

However there’s much more size potential from the weekend’s Tasman Low. Model guidance is a little all over the shop right now, but we’re looking at potentially large SE thru' S’ly swells persisting through Monday in the 6ft+ range (latest data suggests a brief spike north of 8ft+ right now - see below - but let's not get ahead of ourselves), easing Tuesday but being replaced with a moderate E’ly swell from a stationary fetch on the eastern flank of the associated trough occupying the western Tasman Sea. 

This particular region looks pretty juicy, as the resulting fetch is likely to extend further back into the South Pacific swell window and is thus a potentially longer term source of E/NE swell for the region, if the Tasman trough remains slow moving through the  week (which is quite likely).

At this stage Tues/Wed/Thurs could all see E’ly swell anywhere between 3-5ft with much better conditions as the local S’ly flow eases, and there’s certainly more than a couple of ingredients on the boil for another significant swell generating system to redevelop in the Tasman Sea towards the end of the working week too, that could supply stronger surf into next weekend.

Let’s take another look on Friday.