Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 14th January)

Best Days: Peaky NE windswell all week, though with average conditions udner tricky local winds. Early Wed/Fri/Sat look the best right now. Sunday also has a fun S'ly swell on the cards with light winds a possibility. 

Recap: The weekend saw a mix of NE and E/NE swells, with wave heights maxing out at 2-3ft on Saturday, before easing a little into Sunday and becoming bumpy as a southerly change moved up the coast. Although there was very little southerly windswell trailing the change, the parent low passing south of Tasmania on Saturday generated a fresh southerly groundswell that provided occasional 3ft sets to some of Sydney’s south facing beaches this morning, easing into the afternoon. The E/NE swell has persisted around 2ft+. Winds were light and variable early but are now moderate to fresh NE.

Fun small waves at Manly this morning

This week (Jan 15 - 18)

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A slow moving Tasman high will deliver a fairly steady run of NE winds and NE windswells this week.

A series of weak fronts and troughs passing across Victoria and Tasmania throughout this time frame will will alternately strengthen and weaken the local NE fetch in our swell window, and this will in turn create episodic pulses of local wind waves. 

Getting the precise timing on each pulse is a little tricky, but at this stage it looks like late Tuesday and early Wednesday will see the first pulse (2-3ft+ NE facing beaches), with a second pulse building throughout Thursday (2-3ft NE facing beaches by the a’noon) ahead of a bigger NE swell pushing 3-4ft late Friday and into Saturday morning. 

Either side of these pulses, expect smaller wave heights. Surf size will also be much smaller in general at south facing beaches and across the northern Hunter.

Today’s south swell is already on the way out and the latter stages of the responsible low now look much less interesting off the NZ West Coast. The models have very small levels of S/SE swell Tuesday and Thursday but I wouldn’t worry too much about this source.

Also in the mix this week will be a small undercurrent of E/NE swell originating from a small E’ly dip that formed south of Fiji this week, but it won’t be any bigger than the local windswell. 

The main issue this week will be local winds, as the aforementioned peaks in local NE swell will be generally accompanied by strengthening winds. Early mornings certainly stand a chance at seeing light winds; I’d peg Wednesday and Friday mornings for workable options but don’t get your expectations too high.

This weekend (Jan 19 - 20)

A strong front will cross Southern NSW on Saturday morning, delivering an early wind shift to the south and building local windswells into the afternoon. 

Early morning should see a period of light winds across most locations north from the South Coast, and a brief peak in NE windswell (around 3-4ft, though rapidly easing). The afternoon’s southerly windswell could reach 2-3ft+ at south facing beaches, but it’s early days yet. 

Winds are expected to ease quickly and become light and variable for Sunday morning ahead of afternoon sea breezes. The parent low tracking under Tasmania will be poorly aligned and travelling quickly through the swell window, but based on current model guidance, Sunday could still pick up 3-4ft+ of southerly groundswell at reliable south swell magnets (mainly north from Sydney through the Hunter), so this is well worth keeping an eye on over the coming days. 

Next week (Jan 21 onwards)

There’s nothing major on the long term charts at this stage, just a chance for a developing trough off the North Coast early next week that could be a local swell source for much of NSW, and some passing fronts through the Southern Ocean providing small sideband southerly groundswell.