Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 11th January)

Best Days: Nothing overly special, but most days should have small peaky waves from a variety of directions (little S'ly swell component until Monday though). 

Recap: Moderate southerly winds created bumpy conditions at some coasts on Thursday but many locations saw light variable conditions, and a peaky mix of E/SE and E/NE swells built surf size into the 2-3ft range. Wave heights have persisted in a similar size range today with the inclusion of south southerly swell, accompanied by generally light variable winds. A small tertiary E/NE swell from TC Mona has yet to arrive.

This weekend (Jan 12 - 13)

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A strengthening high in the Tasman Sea will freshen NE winds parallel to the Southern NSW coast overnight and into Saturday. This will generate a peaky NE swell for the region, however we may not see winds pick up locally until about lunchtime or early afternoon, so early morning should see reasonably clean conditions. 

In addition to the NE swell (which should reach somewhere between 2ft and maybe 3ft at exposed NE facing beaches) we’ll also have some long range E/NE swell originating from TC Mona, near Fiji. This swell reached Northern NSW and SE Qld around lunchtime today (though hasn’t quite showed in Southern NSW yet), and wave heights came in slightly below expectations, so I’m wary of overcalling Sydney’s surf prospects (though with concurrent swells in the water it’s less of a risk). Again, expect around 2ft or so, maybe 2-3ft if we’re lucky, and with lengthy breaks between waves.

Today’s S’ly and E/SE swells will be much smaller by Saturday, so expect the NE and E/NE swells to be dominant. This will have a bearing on likely surf size across locations only open to the south (hello Cronulla!). 

A shallow trough will push up the coast on Sunday, and the latest model runs have strengthened the expected winds along the coast. We’ll see the S’ly creep into Sydney just before dawn, but there’s not a lot of agreement as to what will happen after then - it’s likely that the change will peter out on the Hunter Coast, and winds may infect ease back into the afternoon.

As such, expect a period of average, bumpy, wind-affected conditions early in the morning and aim for an afternoon surf instead. Saturday’s swell combo out of the NE and E/NE will be easing, and there’s little chance of any appreciable swell trailing the southerly change, so expect small slow surf in the 2ft range at best, at beaches exposed to the NE.

Next week (Jan 14 onwards)

A strong front will round the Tasmanian corner over the weekend, providing a fresh S’ly swell overnight Sunday that’ll be in the water early Monday morning. I’m only expecting a brief flush of energy around the 2-3ft mark at south facing beaches (bigger near 3-4ft across the Hunter) and conditions should be good with mainly light variable winds tending NE into the afternoon. Once again, this looks like being a flukey swell event so keep your expectations low as it probably won't light up every coast with waves. 

Monday should also see some small residual trade swell out of the E/NE, and some short range E’ly swell from the stalled trough off the coast on Sunday (no major size though).

The front and low responsible for Monday’s S’ly swell will move to a position near New Zealand overnight Sunday, developing a secondary S’ly fetch that’ll provide small but useful sideband S/SE swell. The models aren’t picking this up right now but I reckon we’ll see 2-3ft sets through Tuesday and Wednesday.  

Looking further ahead, and a stationary trade flow through the northern Tasman Sea/Lower Coral Sea and South Pacific will become slightly enhanced with an easterly dip forming south of Fiji over the weekend, though it doesn’t look especially well set up for our region.

However, it should boost surf size at some point on Tuesday (probably the afternoon) with slow, inconsistent 2-3ft sets, holding into Wednesday and maybe Thursday. Don’t look at it as a specific swell event, but rather some useful backup energy across the beachies. 

Freshening NE winds are expected across the coast on Tuesday and Wednesday anyway. They’ll generate low quality NE windswell that probably won’t become useful until a trough pushed off the South Coast around Thursday, disrupting the local airstream and allowing conditions to improve for a period at least, prior to the usual return southerly airstream.

Long term suggests we may see a significant local system int he Southern Tasman Sea later next week and into the weekend (in the lee of Thursday’s trough) but that’s still a very long time away.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!