Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 7th January)

Best Days: TuesPM/Wed: strong though inconsistent S'ly groundswell, best Wed morning with a period of light winds developing ahead of a shallow S'ly change. Late Thurs thru' Fri/Sat/Sun: small but fun E/NE swell from TC Mona. Next week: slightly bigger E/NE groundswell from another tropical depression out near Fiji.

Recap: There was no shortage of surf over the weekend. Short range NE swell managed occasional 3ft+ sets at swell magnets on Saturday morning, but was smaller elsewhere, and plenty of beaches reported great waves before a S’ly change pushed across the coast. Sunday saw small leftover NE swell and building S’ly windswell with average conditions are most beaches. Today’s seen an improvement with winds tending light and variable, and a small peaky SE swell producing 2ft to almost 2-3ft waves across open beaches. 

This week (Jan 8 - 11)

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We’ve got some interesting swells ahead for this week. 

A deep Southern Ocean low has generated a long period S’ly groundswell that’s just pushing into Tasmanian coasts as we speak, and it’ll reach Southern NSW on Tuesday morning, with the leading edge reaching the Sydney region just before lunchtime.

This swell will exhibit long swell periods (18-19 seconds) that’ll exaggerate wave heights at reliable south swell magnets, somewhere around 3-4ft+, with the odd bigger bomb across the Hunter coast. A peak in size is likely late Tuesday afternoon or early Wednesday morning, ahead of a slow decline in size throughout Wednesday. Note: the wave model (as per usual) is not picking up this swell very well, so my estimate it significantly above the guidance.

It's also worth pointing out that these kinds of flukey long range south swells often don't light up every beach (even those facing south), so if you don't see the results you expect at your local swell magnet, check a few other spots to see how they are faring.

Winds will freshen from the N/NE on Tuesday, becoming fresh late in the day as the south swell reaches a peak. A small NE windswell may develop from this source, and we’ll also see a small undercurrent of E/NE trade swell in the 1-2ft range. 

A weak trough will slide up the Southern NSW coast on Wednesday morning, pushing a moderate, shallow southerly change into most locations though it looks like it may stall around the Central Coast region in the early afternoon. As such the wind outlook is tricky - some locations (more likely north from the Central Coast) may see early N’ly winds ahead of the trough, and there’ll also be a broad period of light variable winds close to the trough line. 

So, Wednesday morning looks very promising with a region of light winds through the morning, and a strong though inconsistent and easing southerly groundswell.

South-easterly winds are then likely to occupy the region through Thursday in the lee of the trough, without any major strength, before tending easterly then north-easterly into Friday.

Small leftover (and easing) S’ly groundswell Thursday may be accompanied by a small local SE swell but I’m doubtful that we’ll see much more than a slow 2ft+ wave at exposed beaches.

The other source of swell for the end of the week has been downgraded.

TC Mona is moving slowly south of Fiji, but it hasn’t quite developed as much as was estimated on Friday. As such, the new E/NE swell expected to fill in throughout Thursday afternoon and Friday has been pulled back to an inconsistent 2-3ft. Still, this should provide some fun waves to finish the working week, albeit with slightly below average conditions thanks to the moderate onshore breeze. 

Lastly, a broad but ultimately disjointed series of Southern Ocean lows passing south of Tasmania mid-week will set up a small south swell arriving simultaneously - probably into the Sydney region on Thursday afternoon, and persisting through Friday. At this stage it’s likely to contribute a similar surf size too, up to 2ft+ at most south facing beaches though bigger across some of the more reliable Hunter swell magnets around 3-4ft. 

This weekend (Jan 12 - 13)

It’s shaping up to be a tricky though ultimately small weekend of waves, with inconsistent E/NE energy from TC Mona being the primary swell source both days, and easing S’ly swells from Friday also contributing some energy on Saturday. 

A troughy pattern will deliver variable winds on Saturday, tending moderate S’ly at some stage on Sunday, so book yourself in for a fun beach break session both days, preferably Saturday. 

Next week (Jan 14 onwards)

A broad region of troughiness near Fiji all week - hosting the remnants of easing (by this time) ex-TC Mona is modelled to spawn a new tropical depression over the weekend, that looks like being a stronger source of E/NE groundswell next week. Current expectations are for a slow increase from Monday onwards, peaking around Wednesday with 3-4ft+ sets at exposed beaches, though rather inconsistent due to the large travel distance. 

A strong front passing south of Tasmania on Saturday will also generate a fresh S’ly swell for Monday too, though it’ll likely be a brief event. 

Lastly, lingering troughiness through the southern Tasman Sea should contribute small to (perhaps) moderate SE swells through the first half of next week too.

So... there’s lots to look forward to!

See you Wednesday.