Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 31st December)

Best Days: Tues thru' Fri: small, sustained E/NE swell, light winds and sea breezes, biggest late Wed/Thurs. Late Thurs/Fri: fun small S'ly swell. Fri/Sat: small E/NE groundswell (no major size). 

Recap: The weekend delivered fluctuating NE swells that reached anywhere from 3-4ft at exposed spots, though there were periods of smaller waves at times. Winds freshened from the N/NE on Saturday but went light and variable Sunday morning under the influence of a local trough to the south, before swinging NE into the afternoon. This morning saw wave heights ease back considerably to 2ft+, and winds were light and variable but are now moderate NE. 

This week (Jan 1 - 4)

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A near stationary synoptic pattern will deliver only subtle changes in surf conditions this week.

We’ll see swells from a couple of sources. The weekend’s punch NE surf was generated by a strong local fetch, which has weakened but will remain off the Mid North Coast all week, fluctuating in strength and delivering occasional 1-2ft waves to open NE facing beaches.

Additionally, a broad trade flow developed across the Northern Tasman Sea over the weekend, and will contribute small but useful E/NE trade swell for exposed beaches, somewhere north of 2ft but smaller than 3ft, but very inconsistent at times.

A sub tropical low is developing at the tail end of the broad trade flow (see chart below), and is generating a small but longer period E/NE swell that will probably arrive around Friday, and build into the weekend, though surf size will remain very small (due to the large travel distance), somewhere in the 2ft, maybe 2-3ft range with extremely long breaks between sets. 

Because there are no actual swell fronts expected over the coming days - only stationary or slow moving swell sources, offering gradual increases and then pulsey, long lived swell events, it’s difficult have confidence in specific wave heights (and surf conditions) throughout the week. If anything it’s best to anticipate slow, infrequent 1-2ft sets at the swell magnets, and then be pleasantly surprised when it pulses into the  2-3ft range for brief periods of time. Current model guidance suggests the upper end of this size range will occur more likely late Wed and into Thursday, originating from maximum wind speed within the weekend's trades occuring yesterday afternoon. However it's unlikely to be a strong swell event and will likely be tidally dependent.

Also in the water on Thursday (more likely the afternoon) and Friday will be a small long period S’ly groundswell, generated by a deep Southern Ocean low passing south of Tasmania over the coming days It’s strong and broad, but poorly aligned so will only favour the south swell magnets, especially those north from Sydney to the Hunter, with occasional 2-3ft sets. 

Local winds look reasonably good all week - mainly light and variable with sea breezes from Tuesday through early Thursday, ahead of freshening NE breezes into Thursday afternoon, holding more prominently into Friday as a ridge strengthens along the coast.

This weekend (Jan 5 - 6)

It looks like we have a similar pattern expected for the weekend, but with a little more breeze out of the NE on Saturday, ahead of a shallow southerly change into Sunday and a chance for light and variable winds at times. 

The aforementioned long range E/NE swell should keep pulsing somewhere in the 2ft to almost 2-3ft range, though its distant nature will result in extremely ong breaks between the sets. Friday's southerly swell will be all but gone by Saturday.

Saturday’s local winds may also kick up a more reliable source of NE windswell for Saturday that could offer a few bigger (3ft+ sets), before it settles back again throughout Sunday. 

So, there'll be waves all weekend, though nothing of any amazing quality.

Next week (Jan 7 onwards)

As has been discussed in these notes for the last week or so, we’re looking at a significant tropical cyclone developing in the Coral Sea this week, plus an assortment of tropical lows (or possible tropical cyclones) in the South Pacific too, under a slow moving MJO phase across the top end of the country and into the tropical waters east of the continent.

The Coral Sea system looks like a beauty - becoming very large and powerful by the end of the week - expect it will remain well and truly outside of Southern NSW’s swell window.

I’ll keep an eye on this over the coming days, but at this stage there are no signs of any major swell generating systems of tropical origins developing within our primary swell windows throughout the forecast period.

Have a great NYE, see you Wednesday!