Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 14th November)

Best Days: Fri: light winds, small peaky S/SE and E/NE swells. Sun: fun kick in E/NE swell with generally good winds, size easing through Mon. Late Tues/Wed/Thurs: Fun SE swell, though tricky winds; N'ly then tending W'ly.

Recap: I’m pretty happy with the way things have panned out over the last few days. We’ve seen a building combo of NE and E/NE swells, with freshening NE winds on Tuesday giving way to lighter, more variable winds throughout today, which has delivered plenty of fun waves across the open beaches, size holding the 3ft+ mark at the more reliable swell magnets for a few hours through the middle of the day. 

Fun options at Manly this afternoon

Smaller, full and fat but glassy in Newcastle

This week (Nov 15 - 16 onwards)

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A weak trough is disrupting the local NE fetch, so we’ll see easing swells from this regions into Thursday. However, the background E/NE swell should keep ticking along with occasional 2ft+ sets at most open beaches. 

A southerly change behind the trough will slowly push across the Sydney region throughout the morning, so we should see an early period of light winds across some beaches - unlikely south from the Illawarra, though a longer period is likely across the northern Hunter compared to Sydney beaches. 

This southerly fetch won’t be particularly strong, but should generate some average local windswell into the afternoon, perhaps 2ft or maybe 2-3ft at south facing beaches by the end of the day if we’re lucky. You’ll probably be better off scoping out the residual E/NE swell across southern ends. 

Friday will then see easing short range southerly swells from this source, with rapidly moderating S’ly winds that will probably go variable across many coasts. Most south facing beaches should see 2-3ft sets easing to 2ft throughout the day, with an undercurrent of small, inconsistent E/NE swell elsewhere around 2ft.

This weekend (Nov 17 - 18)

So, after plenty of chopping and changing in the model guidance - including a major upgrade back into the 5-6ft range around thirty minutes after I published Monday’s forecast notes - they’ve finally cooled on the idea of a significant system developing in the Tasman Sea later this week. And therefore, we won't see large surf this weekend. 

We’re still looking at S/SE swells throughout the weekend from a modest low in the south-eastern corner of the Tasman basin, but size will probably hold out around 1-2ft from this source, with a momentary flush of bigger surf near 2-3ft later Saturday and into Sunday. It'll be pretty slow and lacklustre though; I wouldn't work around it.

However, we have a better swell source on the way. A broad trough of low pressure between New Zealand and Fiji is expected to muscle up over the coming days, reaching maximum strength on Thursday though aimed mainly towards locations further north. 

This will generate a decent E/NE swell that will fill in on top of the pre-existing E/NE swell (already in place right now, holding through Saturday), arriving on Saturday evening and providing a welcome boost into the 3ft+ range at exposed beaches into Sunday. 

Saturday’s winds look a little average with a weak trough sliding up the coast, bringing moderate to potentially fresh southerlies to most coasts throughout the day, but they should clear for Sunday - still holding from the southern quadrant, but only light in strength. 

As such, Sunday is the pick of the forecast period at this stage. Set waves will be inconsistent but there should be some good surf at reliable swell magnets. 

Next week (Nov 19 onwards)

Sunday’s swell source will have eased back by late Friday and early Saturday, which means we’ll see easing E/NE swell from sometime Monday onwards - though early morning should still see occasional 3ft sets, and it'll be clean with light winds. 

The weak Tasman Low expected to develop over the next few days is expected to linger off New Zealand’s West Coast over the weekend, before restrengthening a southerly fetch later Sunday in association with a merging polar front. 

This fetch won’t be very well aligned within our swell window, but it will be stationary, and should generate some interesting sideband S/SE thru’ SE swells from about Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday morning onwards, holding for a day or two. It’s still early days, but 3-4ft+ sets are possible from this source. 

Unfortunately, northerly winds are expected to freshen around this time, though it’ll be a temporary fixture ahead of a westerly change as a trough moves across the coast. 

More in Friday’s notes.