Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 31st August)

Best Days: Sat AM: clean though becoming very small, very quickly. Sun/Mon: solid south swell though winds look tricky out of the south (esp Sun). Tues/Wed: lighter winds and plenty of swell from the S/SE thru' E. Fri: peaky NE swell with offshore winds. 

Recap: Wednesday’s very large S/SE swell eased through Thursday though early morning was still pushing 8ft at exposed locations, and conditions were clean with offshore winds. Size eased into the afternoon, and was down to 3-4ft this morning. Freshening northerly winds created poor conditions through the morning though they swung NW a few hours ago and we’re now seeing some fun 2-3ft waves out of the SE and NE, with clean (though slightly wobbly) surface conditions.

Friday afternoon offshores grooming a mix of SE and SE swells at Queenscliff

This weekend (Sep 1 - 2)

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We’ve got a weekend of two halves. 

Today's offshore breeze will freshen overnight, and with steadily easing swells from the SE and NE, there won’t be a lot of size on offer. 

Only the morning has any potential for a few leftover 1-2ft sets - but even that’s stretching it - as the fetch responsible for today’s NE windswell has already pushed outside our swell window, and the current easing rate of the S/SE swell would suggest very small waves indeed on Saturday. By mid-late afternoon it’ll likely be tiny to flat. 

A small long period south swell is modelled to clip the coastline through Saturday afternoon (16+ seconds) but its source was very unfavourable aligned for Southern NSW (south of the mainland) so I’m not expecting much size - though we may see some small energy into Sunday. 

However, Sunday will have much more local, direct swell sources to content with. Strong fronts passing across the Tasmanian region from tonight through Sunday will generate varying degrees of southerly swell for our coast, with a peak expected on Monday.



The first swell will nose into the South Coast on Saturday afternoon, originating from W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait in the morning. There’s an outside chance we may see a very late pulse across Sydney/Hunter coasts but it’ll mainly arrive into the evening, build slowly overnight and the trend upwards more steadily through Sunday. 

Early Sunday morning should see 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches (smaller elsewhere) ahead of a more prominent building trend through the day that should reach 4-6ft into the afternoon. However, winds are expected to swing fresh S’ly through the early morning and this will wipe out conditions at south facing beaches, so the only rideable options will be at protected southern ends where it’ll be much smaller. 

There’s a chance for a brief window of isolated regions seeing early W/SW winds (such as the Northern Beaches) but don’t get your hopes up. 

Next week (Sep 3 onwards)

The front associated with Sunday’s southerly change will clear to the east into Monday, but a ridge will build across the coast and this will lead to a risk of moderate S/SE winds throughout the day. We should see pockets of early W/SW winds (again, the Northern Beaches your best chance) but on the balance conditions look a bit iffy. 

However, the southerly groundswell should be at full steam by this point, originating from much further south of Tasmania over the weekend (see below), pushing 5-6ft+ at south facing beaches (a little bigger in the Hunter, but much smaller elsewhere). Wave heights will however trend down throughout the afternoon. 

The rest of the week looks reasonably productive, though at a smaller size. The front and low will redevelop off New Zealand’s West Coast, maintaining a broad fetch through the Tasman Sea in conjunction with a ridge to the north. This will generate a wide spectrum of swells of various periods from the S/SE thru E from Tuesday thru’; Thursday, with size generally hovering either side of 3-4ft for the most part (perhaps a little bigger Tues, and a little smaller by Thurs). 

Winds look to be light and variable tending onshore Tues/Wed but an approaching front will strengthen northerlies on Thursday in a synoptic pattern similar to today - we should see building N’ly windswells throughout the day ahead of a gusty W’ly change in the early hours of Friday morning that could create some very nice peaky options to finish the week, with clean 3-4ft+ NE surf across exposed beaches. 

More on that on Monday.  Have a great weekend!