Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 24th August)

Best Days: Sun: lumpy mix of NE and SE swells with winds becoming light during the morning. Tues/Wed/Thurs: plenty of strong S'ly swell with mainly light winds. 

Recap: Thursday delivered very good waves with light offshore winds and easing S/SE swells offering 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches, with smaller surf elsewhere. A new SE swell kicked in very late in the day, providing inconsistent 3-4ft sets today though the swell was a little delineated and wobbly, and although winds were light and variable early, they have slowly freshened from the E/NE throughout the day, bumping up most open beaches. 

Slighty lumpy but fun SE groundswell at Shark Island this morning

This weekend (Aug 25 - 26)

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Today’s new SE groundswell will persist into Saturday morning but will remain extremely inconsistent, and size will ease throughout the day.

In any case, freshening NE tending N/NE winds will largely take the gloss off surface conditions and deteriorate wave quality throughout the day as a trough deepens along the coastal margin. 

As the trough pushes off the coast into Sunday, we’ll see winds ease from the northern quadrant (probably early, maybe before dawn) and tend light and variable. This will allow surface conditions will improve - though without a synoptic offshore wind it’ll remain lumpy at best for the most part, with a slow bettering (is that a real word?) trend into the afternoon.

The good news is that Saturday’s freshening NE winds should generate a short range NE swell for Sunday, and with lighter, more variable conditions to finish the weekend there’ll be some fun peaky waves across the open beaches, aided by some minor background SE swell. Sets should manage 2-3ft across most NE facing beaches (smaller at south facing beaches). It won’t be epic but should still be well worth a paddle. 

Next week (Aug 27 onwards)

A strong front racing up from the south on Sunday is expected to merge with the trough pushing into the Tasman Sea, strengthening southerly winds adjacent to the South Coast on Monday and forming an impressive low in the Southern Tasman Sea. This system will occupy the region for a few days.

As such, we're looking at an extended period of southerly groundswells for next week.

Initially, Monday’s short range energy will be accompanied with a lot of local wind (20kts+ S/SW, though early W/SW likely in a few locations). Wave heights will probably be a little undersized at dawn but should push into the 5-6ft+ range at south facing beaches by the afternoon. It’ll be bigger across the Hunter but smaller at beaches with less southerly exposure.

Tuesday looks much better as the low deepens further to the south, allowing winds to veer back to the W/SW and S’ly swells to settle around 4-5ft+ at south facing beaches (smaller elsewhere, though bigger in the Hunter). This swell will probably ease through the afternoon and into Wednesday morning. 

As the low intensifies east of Tasmania, models expect it to slingshot northwards through the western Tasman Sea, delivering a strong southerly groundswell from late Wednesday through Thursday that could again nudge wave heights back up into the 6ft+ range - though this time a much stronger, better quality swell than earlier in the week. In fact we could see a size upgrade for this event, but it's just a little too early to have too much confidence.

Winds should remain favourable Wednesday and Thursday though Friday will see both a steady decrease in size (as the low moves out of our swell window mid-week) and a freshening northerly wind as the next system approaches from the west. 

Long term guidance suggests a peaky NE windswell Friday or Saturday next week ahead of the next system that’ll produce strong southerly swells from about Sunday or Monday onwards. 

So, there’s lots to look forward to - have a great weekend and I’ll see you Monday!