Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 15th August)

Best Days: Fri/Sat AM: fun south swell, good winds. Mon: large and windy out of the south. Tues: large S/SE swell but lighter winds. Wed/Thurs/Fri: inconsistent long range southerly swell with good winds. 

Recap: Monday’s late rise in south swell held nicely through Tuesday with 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches (bigger 3-5ft surf in the Hunter) and offshore winds. Size eased back today though it’s remained clean under a NW breeze, most beaches have seen very small surf though south swell magnets have pulled in 2ft, almost 2-3ft sets at times (3-4ft in the Hunter, as per the surfcam grab below from Newcastle). A small easterly groundswell also appears to be filling in beneath, offering infrequent 1-2ft waves at exposed beaches this afternoon.

Still some great waves in Newcastle this morning

This week (Aug 16 - 17)

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A vigorous stream of fronts are crossing the SE corner of the country, and they'll be the source of persistent south swells throughout the next few days.

However, Thursday will start off very small, with today’s swell easing back further. Small lines of infrequent E’ly swell will continue about exposed beaches - you may luck into a 1-2ft set from time to time if you’re lucky - but it’s really not worth getting too excited about. Conditions will however be clean with offshore winds. 

Through the mid-late afternoon (earlier on the South Coast) a new pulse of S’ly swell will start to push into the region, generated by westerly gales exiting eastern Bass Strait later today. The fetch won’t swing south of west until later Thursday - meaning we won’t see a proper pulse of south swell until Friday - but Thursday afternoon has an outside chance for some stray 2ft, maybe 2-3ft sets at south swell magnets. 

However, I suspect it won’t be until Friday when this will kick in properly, with a few bigger sets (2-3ft+ south facing beaches, also pushing 3-5ft across the Hunter). However beaches with less southerly exposure will be much smaller. Conditions look great with light offshore winds and a possible afternoon sea breeze. 

This weekend (Aug 18 - 19)

The parent low to the front generating our late Thurs/Fri swell will be positioned well S/SE of Tasmania and it’ll generate some long period southerly swell for the start of the weekend.

Model guidance has weakened the structure of this system a little since Monday's notes were prepared, and the associated swell is also now expected to push through a little earlier - Friday afternoon on the South Coast, reaching Sydney overnight and then easing through Saturday.

As such, Saturday morning is your best time to capitalise on this next south swell, early morning may see some stray 2-3ft sets at south swell magnets (3-5ft through the Hunter) but it’ll likely halve in size throughout the day. Expect much smaller surf at beaches with less southerly exposure. Offshore winds will strengthen throughout the day so conditions will be clean, if a little blustery into the afternoon.

Sunday looks like it’ll start off tiny, but yet another vigorous front pushing across the SE corner of the country overnight Saturday will generate building short range S’ly swells through the afternoon.

However, it looks like winds will concurrently trend to the SW, possibly even S/SW, so exposed south swell magnets will be wind affected and everywhere else will be tiny. A big south swell will eventuate from this pattern but the latest model runs have slightly slowed the progression so we may not see a great deal of size before close of business (maybe some 3-4ft+ sets). Let’s reevaluate on Friday. 

Next week (Aug 20 onwards)

We've got stacks of south swell for next week, with a series of vigorous fronts tracking a long ways north through the Tasman Sea, and an embedded Tasman Low turbo-boosting proceedings around Tuesday morning. There’ll be a fair degree of fresh to strong SW winds at times, even S’ly through Monday afternoon, but we should see upwards of 6-8ft+ at the height of the activity.

Tuesday's direction should be more SE of S which will favour a broader spread of locations, and the periods should ratchet up a little higher thanks to the stronger core winds around the embedded Tasman Low (see below), which should create excellent waves at those offshore reefs and bombies that focus larger wavelengths (expect some very big waves at times at these locations). The alignment of this low isn't optimal but the strength of the winds, acting apon an already active sea state should ensure some very strong surf across the entire Southern NSW coast.

Lighter winds will prevail through Tuesday afternoon onwards and wave heights will thereafter ease steadily from the south, though a series of long period southerly swells from strong front/low combos tracking through the Southern Ocean below Tasmania earlier in the week will provide excellent surf from Wednesday onwards, up to 3-5ft at south swell magnets like the Hunter and holding into Thursday.

More on this in Friday’s update.