Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 22nd June)

Best Days: Sat: easing swell, light winds. Mon/Tues: solid S'ly swells with mainly light winds. Fri/Sat: chance for a punchy NE tending E'ly swell.

Recap: The surf’s been unreal for the last few days, 3-5ft out of the SE Thursday, down a smidge this morning and it now looks like we’re seeing some new E/SE swell (swell periods have increased a touch at the buoys) with occasional 4-5ft sets at a few locations. Winds have been light offshore with excellent conditions.

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Solid Friday mid-afternoon set at Shark Island

This weekend (June 23 - 24)

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Note: Today’s Forecaster Notes will be brief, as Craig is away on annual leave

Light winds will persist into Saturday but our current mix of SE and E/SE groundswells will ease from the get-go, so aim for a morning paddle for the most size. Set waves should still be pushing 3ft+ early morning - maybe even a few bigger bombs here and there - but it’ll become smaller throughout the day and by Sunday we’ll be down to 1-2ft leftovers. 

On Sunday a southerly change will push across the coast. Most regions should see early SW or even W/SW winds, but by late morning we’ll see the southerly push through southern Sydney and it’ll be north of the Harbour and into the Hunter by lunchtime or early afternoon.

A solid southerly groundswell generated by the parent low (to Sunday's change) is expected push through on Monday but we may not see an appreciable size increase from this late Sunday - just short range S’ly swell in the lee of the change. Models are estimating 3-4ft of bumpy surf at south facing beaches, which seems to be a reasonable fit though protected southern corners will be much smaller. As such, keep your expectations low for a late session - but there’ll be waves through the afternoon if you’re keen.

Next week (June 25 onwards)

The low pushing through the lower Tasman Sea looks really strong, and I’ve slightly upgraded the outlook since Wednesday’s notes. South facing beaches should see 5-6ft sets and there’ll be bigger bombs through the Hunter. The swell direction will be quite south so expect much smaller surf elsewhere, but winds are expected to veer light W’ly and conditions will subsequently be quite clean. 

Steadily easing size is then expected from Tuesday into Thursday with mainly light winds. 

Long term prospects have just become quite exciting for the end of the week, with an unseasonable trough off SE Qld expected to track south from about Wednesday, developing a punchy NE fetch in our immediate swell window and possibly forming a closed low off the central NSW coast around Friday.

This has good potential for a NE tending E’ly swell anywhere from late Thursday thru' Friday and Saturday, though it’s still early days - and an advancing front from the south-west is likely to shunt it off to the east at some point anyway (so, the broader atmospherics don’t lend a whole lot of confidence to the surf outlook just now).

Anyway, that’ll keep me busy for the next week - check back in on Monday to see how things have evolved. 

Have a great weekend!