Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 20th June)

Best Days: Thurs: improving winds, solid, easing SE swell. Fri: fun SE swell early, with a new E/SE pulse throughout the day. Light winds. Sat: easing swell, light winds. Mon/Tues/Wed: solid S'ly swells with mainly light winds. 

Recap: It’s been very windy with large S’ly swells for the last few days, up to 6-8ft at south swell magnets but much smaller elsewhere thanks to a straight southerly swell direction and a relatively low swell period. Whilst many beaches saw S’ly winds through Tuesday, the Northern Beaches remained SW thru’ W/SW for most of the day, though a more regional S’ly flow became established today. Size has also eased slowly throughout since this morning.

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This week (June 21 - 22)

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Note: Today’s Forecaster Notes will be brief, as Craig is away on annual leave.

Our short range S’ly swells will be replaced by mid-range SE thru’ E/SE swells over the coming days - the former generated from a broad SE fetch through the Tasman Sea yesterday and today, and the latter generated by a vigorous flow exiting western Cook Strait today (see chart below).

Local winds will abate rapidly overnight to become light and variable for much of Thursday and early Friday, ahead of a light afternoon northerly.

As for surf, Thursday should see open beaches easing back into the 3-5ft range, with a broader coverage of size compared to the recent S’ly swells (that have favoured south facing beaches with the most size).

Interestingly, the models are not particularly keen on Friday’s pulse of E/SE swell - only expecting around 3ft at open beaches for the entire day (with a slight downwards trend, if anything). Whilst the latest model guidance has certainly eased a little from previous outlooks, we’ll see a boost in swell periods throughout the day (thanks to stronger winds exiting western Cook Strait) and so I’m still confident that we’ll see some really nice waves to finish the working week.

As such, following an early morning dip in size (to around 3ft or so), we should see an afternoon boost back into the 3-5ft range - the bigger waves will be much less consistent than anything else seen this week, and it won’t get in everywhere - but it’ll be reasonably clean and there’ll be a nice smattering of reefs and beaches to pick and choose from. 

This weekend (June 23 - 24)

Make the most of Saturday, as the models have slightly increased the strength of a southerly change for Sunday. 

We’ll see easing size from Friday, down from an inconsistent 3ft+ at open beaches early Saturday morning to around 2ft throughout the day, with smaller surf expected on Sunday. Winds will remain light and variable so it’ll be clean.

Sunday’s southerly change will kick up some small southerly swell in its wake, with sets up to 3ft+ at south facing beaches into the afternoon (and smaller residual surf elsewhere), but local conditions look a bit dicey. Let’s reevaluate on Friday. 

Next week (June 25 onwards)

A series of strong fronts will push through the lower Tasman Sea from Sunday onwards, generating back to back south swells from Monday thru’ Wednesday. 

Although they’re travelling quite fast, I really like the storm track and the successive upgrades over the last few days tip the balance in favour of some strong surf at south facing beaches, around 4-5ft+. Local conditions look like they’ll remain clean too with mainly light winds under a stable high pressure pattern.

More on this in Friday’s update.