Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 18th February)

Best Days: South magnets over the coming mornings

Recap

Great waves yesterday morning with clean easing 3-4ft of S/SE and S'ly swells with a morning offshore and weak sea breezes.

This morning we had fun clean 3ft sets continuing across south facing beaches while waiting for a new large long-period S'ly groundswell to hit.

The swell hit Eden early this morning, but only just now have the buoys around Sydney picked up any energy, with a spike in peak period to 19.85s just registered at Botany Bay (MHL Sydney buoy has also just spiked).

There's no real size attached to it as of yet and we may only see the surf becoming bigger towards dark today (currently 3-4ft). Any late kick in size along with the low tide and straight nature of the swell isn't going to be great, and I'd be keeping your expectations low.

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This weekend and next week (May 19 – 25)

These notes will be brief as Ben’s away today.

This afternoon's building long-period S'ly groundswell is due to peak overnight and under the cover of darkness, with a drop in size through tomorrow from 3-4ft expected across south magnets in Sydney, with larger sets at dawn in the Hunter, smaller on the South Coast.

Some small short-range S'ly swell should also be in the mix and a morning W/SW breeze is due to give into a shallow S/SE change through the day.

Into Sunday a new S'ly pulse to 3ft is expected, generated by a fairly zonal but strong front passing under Tassie and onwards to New Zealand today.

Winds should be good for the morning surf with a W'ly offshore, giving into another shallow S/SE change through the afternoon.

We've got some better sized S'ly groundswell energy due from Monday onwards as the storm track takes a more south-west to north-east track and we'll see the first of a series of strong cold fronts pushing past Tassie and into the Tasman Sea.

The first is due to move through Saturday evening and Sunday morning, projecting a fetch of SW gales through our southern swell window and producing a good 3-4ft of S'ly groundswell for Monday morning (larger in the Hunter).

A secondary front aiming a fetch of strong to gale-force SW winds out of Bass Strait and up along the southern NSW coast Sunday evening and Monday morning will produce a new short-range S'ly swell for the afternoon that may provide some larger sets, though peaking Tuesday morning to 4-5ft.

Winds will swing from a fresh morning W/SW breeze Monday, to the S/SW as the front pushes up past us, with W-W/NW winds Tuesday morning and weak afternoon sea breezes.

Moving into the rest of the week the models diverge slightly but we're expected to see a broad and elongated polar front projecting a fetch of SW gales from below Tasmania up through the Tasman Sea, producing a larger S'ly groundswell for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning to a size that is too early to call.

This may then be followed by a much more vigorous low producing storm-force winds and even larger long-period swell Friday, but more on this in Monday's update. Have a great weekend!