Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 25th April)

Best Days: Thurs: early window of light winds and a small peaky E'ly swell. Mon/Tues: fun SE tending E/SE swell with light winds. 

Recap: A small peaky E’ly swell has kept most open beaches active over the last two days with 2-3ft sets. A small S/SE swell was also in the mix on Tuesday and early this morning. Conditions have been generally clean with mainly light winds. 

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This week (Mar 24 - 27) 

A broad trough over the eastern Tasman Sea will continue to be a swell producer throughout the forecast period, as a lengthy E/NE fetch stretches out into the South Pacific. However, it’s not expected to become particularly strong so size potential from this size is not very high.

In any case, we have a much more dynamic swell source on the way. A gusty S’ly change is expected to push across Southern NSW early Thursday morning (probably reaching Sydney late morning) and strong winds in its wake will build southerly windswells through the afternoon, peaking on Friday around 3-5ft at south facing beaches. 

However, these exposed beaches will be bumpy until the accompanying winds - persisting at strength through Friday - so you’ll have to hunt inside the protected southern corners for smaller, cleaner waves. 

Thursday morning should see a brief window of light W’ly winds north from Sydney to the Hunter (as you head south from Sydney, the window will narrow; the change is expected near Ulladulla around dawn). There should be some slow peaky leftover E’ly swell but I’ve pulled back size expectations from Monday, as the responsible fetch in the Tasman Sea wasn’t quite as strong as I’d hoped. So we’ll probably see a similar size as per today, with very inconsistent 2ft to maybe 2-3ft sets at exposed beaches.

This weekend (May 28 - 29)

On Monday I noted that the model guidance was “way off target for the weekend”, and this has proven to be somewhat correct, with an expected Tasman Low sometime from Saturday thru Monday now shunted north into the north-eastern Tasman Sea, right off the NW tip of New Zealand’s North Island, and partially outside of our swell window. 

The swell we see from it won’t arrive until next week, so our weekend’s waves will be a combination of easing S’ly swell from Friday, and a building spread of mid-range SE swell from a strengthening ridge through the Tasman (a pre-cursor to the low pressure system). This fetch will be aimed right up into the Coral Sea, so the North Coast will see the most size, with smaller surf as you track south from there. 

The main issue this weekend will be moderate SE winds (occasionally fresh through the Hunter, though lighter south from the Illawarra). They’ll bump up the open beaches, and even brief periods of light variable winds early morning will have a hard time cleaning up the lumpiness.

As for size, model guidance has around 3ft both days and this is probably a pretty good indication, if a touch undersized (especially across the Hunter) - so let's make it a peak of 3-4ft across most open coasts between the Illawarra and Sydney (largest surf occuring late Saturday or early Sunday), and 3-5ft from Sydney through the Hunter.

But, with the likely average conditions it doesn’t warrant too much attention just now. Let’s take a closer look on Friday. 

Next week (Mar 30 onwards)

So, this developing low in the NE Tasman Sea - right up on the NZ coast - looks very good for swell prospects…. in Northern NSW and SE Qld. Aside from a small core band of E/SE gales exiting Ciook Strait, the bulk fetch will be aimed away from Southern NSW so expect much smaller size south from the Hunter.

However, the swell periods will draw out a little from the weekend so we may see another foot so on top of what Saturday and Sunday deliver (through Monday and Tuesday). That's about the most optimism I'm willing to infer at this point in time.

Otherwise there’s not much on the cards. A strong frontal progression through the Southern Ocean next week will be poorly aligned for us, and there’s nothing of great interest showing up in the western Tasman Sea either thanks to a large blocking high.

Still, there is plenty of swell to look forward to. Early next week could end up being the pick of the forecast period, if nothing else than for the chance for the most favourable winds. 

See you Friday!