Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 23rd April)

Best Days: Tues/Wed: small building E'ly swell with mainly light winds. 

Recap: Saturday was small across Southern NSW with residual energy from Friday easing back in size. Sunday saw a new S’ly swell push across the region with sets around 3ft across Sydney’s south facing beaches and up to 3-4ft across the Hunter coast (with reports of bigger surf on the South Coast). Wave heights eased back a little overnight and into this morning but have pulsed again this afternoon at a similar size seen yesterday. Overall, conditions have been very good for the last few days with mainly light winds. 

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week (Mar 24 - 27) 

The synoptic charts shows a broad, unstable trough lying off the East Coast. 

However, it's a complex system moving in an unusual manner down the coast and without a strong supporting high pressure ridge to its south, the easterly fetch on its southern flank is not particularly strong. This is keeping swell prospects undersized for now though there is still considerable divergence in the model guidance, which means we need to keep our options flexible for the rest of the week. 

Local winds won’t be a problem for the next few days. A small local system within the trough off the Far North Coast is freshening S’ly winds about that region, but a front approaching Tasmania from the SW will freshen northerly winds across the Far South Coast into Tuesday. The Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra coasts like between the two which will probably result in light variable winds, tending light to moderate offshore at times. So, conditions should be OK until Thursday when gusty southerly winds will push along the entire NSW coast in the wake of a front. These conditions will persist through Friday.

As for surf, it looks like we’ll see a small to moderate round of fluctuating E/NE through E'ly swells through the rest of the week, as the trough strengthens and weakens a couple of individual fetches in the central Tasman Sea. The strongest fetch looks like it’ll develop overnight tonight (resulting in a pulse of energy late Tues/Wed) but the broadest, longest lasting fetch will probably occur Tues/Wed, leading to a decent round of energy from late Wednesday through Thursday and maybe early Friday. Unfortunately, the bulk of this second pulse will be marred by fresh local southerlies. 

Tuesday will probably see peaky waves building from 2ft+ early to 2-3ft+ into the afternoon, with larger surf expected to slowly build from Wednesday morning (2-3ft+) into Wednesday afternoon (3-4ft), holding into Thursday and maybe Friday morning before easing.

Also in the mix from late Tuesday through Wednesday is a small long range S/SE swell, generated by a polar low off the ice shelf (south of NZ) over the weekend. This should kick up 2-3ft+ of very inconsistent surf at times, though only at south facing beaches. Today's lingering S'ly energy is expected to ease into Tuesday morning.

Thursday’s strengthening southerly wind will kick up some local windswell in the 3-5ft range for south facing beaches by the end of the day, holding into Friday morning before easing throughout the day. Expect smaller surf at beaches not open to the south. 

With all of this in mind, Tuesday is worth keeping a watch on as the E’ly swell builds but Wednesday looks like the pick of the working week. 

This weekend (May 28 - 29)

Model guidance is way off target for the weekend, so there’s no way to have confidence in what might eventuate surf-wise. 

The remnants of our broad Tasman trough are expected to interact with the front system later this week, though how, when and where they do is unsure. The EC solution has a somewhat explosive development in the form of a Tasman Low on Friday, leading to a broad fetch of SE gales aimed straight into our coast that’d generate large surf (and locally windy conditions) for the weekend. 

However, the US solution favours a slower development closer to the NZ coast, which would result in a smaller weekend of easing S’ly swells ahead of a strong (though comparitavely smaller) S/SE swell early next week.

Both options don't look great for local winds either. 

Let’s wait and see how Wednesday’s model output is looking. It’s simply too difficult to call right now. 

Next week (Mar 30 onwards)

It looks like this Tasman Low is going to dominate the charts for some time, so most of next week’s outlook will hinge on whether it eventuates over the weekend, or whether it delays until next week. Either way, surf prospects look quite active next week from the SE quadrant. 

See you Wednesday!