Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 30th March)

Best Days: Most days should have small workable waves. Biggest surf looks to be later next week with a combo of S'ly and E/NE groundswells arriving simultaneously.

Recap: Easing S’ly swell Thursday, ahead off a building NE swell from ex-TC Iris into the afternoon that’s held in today though provided patchy results across the region. Interestingly, Newcastle has fared the best with the most consistent size (unusual from this direction) and there’s been a much narrower range of opportunities across the more reliable NE facing coasts, compared to standard NE swells. Sets seem to be around 3ft which is at the lower end of forecast expectations, and it’s pretty inconsistent too.

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This weekend (Mar 31st - Apr 1st)

A shallow southerly change late today will linger across the coast into Saturday morning, before easing in strength throughout the day. We’ll see a slow improving trend as the day progresses but there’s a chance that the morning session will be spoiled across some beaches. 

Wave heights should ease back a fraction out of the NE from today, and will remain very inconsistent. Exposed beaches facing NE should pick up infrequent 2ft, almost 2-3ft sets throughout Saturday, becoming a little smaller into Sunday. Expect smaller surf at south facing beaches and across the northern Hunter. There'll be long waits between set waves too.

Sunday may see a few stray sets from a small southerly swell glancing the coast, generated by an unfavourable aligned front passing south of Tasmania today. I doubt there’ll be much in it though (if anything, the Hunter may pick up a few 2ft+ sets but I’m not very confident there’ll be anything worthwhile).

Sunday’s conditions look a little better for the early surf with light variable winds though they’ll freshen from the north as the day progresses. As such, aim for an early paddle. 

Next week (Apr 2nd onwards)

A series of powerful though poorly aligned Southern Ocean fronts and lows below Tasmania next week will generate small levels of southerly groundswell for Southern NSW. 

Most of these swells look way too flukey as reliable swell sources - some exposed beaches may pick up the odd inconsistent 2-3ft set (upper end of this size range mainly across the Hunter) but for the most part I’d be wary of planning anything between Monday and Thursday.

However the final low in this series - tracking below Tasmania around Wednesday, see image below - looks really strong at this stage and the resulting southerly groundswell (due late Thursday on the South Coast, and Friday elsewhere) should kick up some strong sets into the 4ft range at south facing beaches, with larger sets across the Hunter and some offshore bombies. Let’s take a closer look on Monday.

Otherwise, a steady trade flow through the Northern Tasman Sea should ensure small E/NE swell prevails for much of next week. A developing tropical system south of Fiji this weekend is expected to evolve into a significant sub-tropical low N/NE of New Zealand through the early part of next week, though it’ll be mainly aimed up into the New Caledonia/Vanuatu region. 

What makes it a viable swell source of us though is its slow moving nature, and its longevity - which should result in some small long period E/NE groundswell making landfall later next week (say, super inconsistent sets in the 3ft range). I’ll have a better idea on this in Monday’s notes. 

Otherwise, the only other sources of swell for next week are a small NE windswell Monday (from Sunday afternoon’s freshening breeze) and a small S’ly windswell Tuesday in the lee of a trough moving up the coast, bringing a wind change to the region. 

It’ll also be worth keeping an eye on a very small but strong, and sustained fetch of S’ly winds off the Ice Shelf, to the south of New Zealand from about Sunday onwards. This may generate some small S/SE groundswell for our region throughout the second half of next week (though, to be fair you’ll probably find it hard to distinguish from the aforementioned S’ly groundswells from the migrating fronts).

Have a great Easter.. see you Monday!