Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 28th March)

Best Days: Thurs: light winds and a small mix of swells, building E/NE later. Fri: building E/NE swell with early light winds. Sat/Sun: fun easing E/NE swell. 

Recap: We’ve seen a couple of southerly swells over the last few days, generally 2-3ft at south facing beaches with a few bigger sets across the Hunter. A small undercurrent of E/NE swell has maintained peaky options at remaining beaches. Winds have been generally light and variable. 

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This week (Mar 29th - 30th)

The current southerly swell regime will ease back through Thursday. However, we have some inbound energy from ex-TC Iris, which is positioned in the lower Coral Sea. A broadening E’ly fetch is aligned towards the SE Qld and Far Northern NSW region, but it extends sufficiently east to allow for some swell generation inside Southern NSW’s swell window. 

This swell should start to build slowly through  (likely the afternoon), and will peak on Easter Friday. I’ve slightly eased my size expectations from this system as the latest model guidance has marginally narrowed the fetch and also shortened its time frame within our swell window, however we should see some decent waves around 3-4ft at NE facing beaches (south facing beaches and the northern Hunter will be much smaller). 

Expect smaller surf throughout much of Thursday (esp the morning) before the new energy reaches our coast.

As for conditions, we can expect light variable winds and sea breezes on Thursday. A shallow southerly change will move up the Southern NSW coast on Friday, though it’s not expected to reach the Sydney region until mid-afternoon. Prior to its arrival, we may see a freshening northerly airstream though no great strength is expected. However it’s worth keeping an eye out for a possible deterioration in surf quality at exposed beaches, which would push the best waves to protected northern corners (they may not pick up all of the size either). 

This weekend (Mar 31st - Apr 1st)

Ex-TC Iris will linger in the lower Coral Sea over the weekend but will largely remain outside of our swell window.

However, an associated ridge stretching back into the South Pacific through the second half of this week will contribute a steady supply of small E/NE swell all weekend. Set waves will be inconsistent, and the swell will be a little slow and laggy but exposed beaches should manage 2-3ft sets at times both days (if anything, more towards the upper end of this range Saturday, and more towards the lower end Sunday). South facing beaches and the Northern Hunter will again see smaller surf. 

Surface conditions look OK but not great; we’re at risk of a lingering S/SE breeze early Saturday (associated with Friday’s late change) before variable winds settle in through the afternoon. Sunday may see freshening N’ly winds, though early morning should remain light and variable for a period. 

Next week (Apr 2nd onwards)

There’s still plenty of activity on the long term charts. 

Monday morning is on track for a small local NE windswell though no great size or quality is likely. However, the weekend’s steady though inconsistent trade swell should continue motoring along through the first half of next week, thanks to the Northern Tasman Sea ridge holding through the weekend. A southerly change is expected Monday afternoon but the morning should see light variable winds. 

Ex-TC Iris looks like it’ll remain outside of our swell window into the future. However, a new Tropical Cyclone is expected to form near Fiji over the weekend, and although it’ll track to the east, model guidance has it stalling and intensifying NE of New Zealand through the first half of next week. This system will be mainly aimed up into the Coral Sea though we should see an appreciable spread of E/NE groundswell around Friday of next week, holding through the weekend. It’s too early to pin down size estimates but inconsistent 3ft sets are a good chance at this point in time.

Otherwise, we have a couple of nondescript fronts pushing through the lower Tasman Sea next week that’ll supply into intermittent south swell for our region; the first (around Tuesday) will be from the low associated with Monday’s change but a better, longer period S’ly swell is expected later in the week (Thurs/Fri) and we could see 3-4ft sets from this source too. 

More on this in Friday’s update.