Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 26th March)

Best Days: Tues/Wed: fun small S'ly swells at south swell magnets. Thurs/Fri/Sat: great E/NE swell. 

Recap: Northerly winds prevailed over the weekend though the mornings saw periods of offshore conditions. A solid swell combo Saturday offered 3-5ft sets before size eased to 3ft Sunday. A new NE swell provided 2-3ft waves this morning and conditions have been clean with offshore winds, though this swell is now easing.

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Next week (Mar 27th - 30th)

Tuesday and Wednesday will see a couple of south swells push across Southern NSW. 

The first is being generated today by W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait associated with a vigorous front, whilst the second will originate from the parent low further south (below Tasmania).

Although we don’t have any confirmed satellite wind data from the Bass Strait fetch, the latest model initialisation has the fetch slightly more west (in orientation) than Friday’s guidance suggests which may marginally affect size potential, and limit the reach of this first pulse to reliable south swell magnets (i.e. favouring the Newcastle region). We should see occasional 2-3ft sets building across south facing beaches throughout Tuesday morning (bigger across the Hunter) but most other beaches will be very small. Light variable winds and sea breezes are expected across most coasts. 

Wednesday’s swell is also from a tricky source, as it’s a little better aligned than Tuesday’s but lasts only a short duration in the swell window, just SE of Tasmania. I think we’ll probably see a similar spread of size as per Tuesday, but if I had to hedge my bets, Tuesday’s swell will probably be a little more flukey and may miss out at more beaches than Wednesday’s (which by no means will offer any kind of broad coverage either). Winds will swing around to the north on Wednesday though high resolution model guidance suggests wind strengths won’t be terribly strong (may be variable early) with just a pocket of fresh winds south of Wollongong. 

The long term prospects remain dynamic, with Ex-Tropical Cyclone Iris moving south through the Coral Sea. Although it may re-intensify over the coming days, it’s likely to hang north of about Byron latitudes and won’t push directly into our swell window. However it should extend an easterly fetch out towards the South Pacific, and this is expected to generate an E/NE swell for Southern NSW, building slowly on Thursday ahead of a peak on Easter Friday, possibly pushing between 3ft and maybe 5ft at a handful of NE swell magnets (though likely smaller at most other beaches, and also across the Northern Hunter and other south facing beaches).

Local winds look good throughout this time frame, so we should see some very nice beaches to end the week.

This weekend (Mat 31st - Apr 1st)

Looks like a slowly easing mix of easterly swells for the weekend, initially originating from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Iris though a broad fetch stretching back through the South Pacific should also supply a minor undercurrent of energy.

There's some suggestion for a coastal trough to develop parallel to the East Coast into Saturday which could bring about a rise in short range NE swell Sunday and (more so) Monday, but confidence is low on this scenario right now. 

Early indications are for consistent 2-3ft surf Saturday (smaller at south facing beaches) easing to 2ft into Sunday. A weak troughy pattern should create mainly light winds.

Next week (Apr 2nd onwards)

Plenty to look forward too next week, with a strong period of tropical activity in the Coral Sea and South Pacific, including another likely Tropical Cyclone between Fiji and New Caledonia.

The Southern Ocean storm track looks pretty zonal throughout this period so I’m not expecting much more than a couple of flukey pulses glancing the region, otherwise we can look forward to an extended period of E/NE swell across the entire East Coast next week and into the following weekend - certainly much bigger in the north of the state though with more than enough energy to keep Southern NSW surfers active.