Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 31st January)

Best Days: Great waves most days, though still a little wind affected from the south in parts on Thursday. 

Recap: Building E’ly swell Tuesday, persisting into today, with a fresh S’ly change overnight and a concurrent building S’ly swell today that’s still on the rise. 

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week (Feb 1st - 2nd)

Today’s southerly change will ease into Thursday though linger about some parts of the coast, most prominently the Hunter region. Some locations (i.e. Northern Beaches) should pick up an early SW flow, bringing about a period of cleanish conditions though we’re looking at lumpy waves across exposed spots. 

As for swell, we’re looking at an early peak in S’ly swell and then a later peak in E’ly swell from the remnants of TC Fehi, probably around the middle of the day.

Unfortunately, the models marginally sped up TC Fehi’s southward track since Monday’s notes were prepared, and also kept it slightly more east than initially modelled. As such I’ve chipped off the top of the size outlook, with a peak expected around lunchtime in the 4-6ft range at exposed beaches. The south swell should peak early morning of a similar size but trend down during the day. 

However, as detailed on Friday and Monday, because tomorrow will display two large swells concurrently from two different directions, there’s a heightened chance for larger rogue sets at times. 

Whilst Thursday will deliver the biggest surf, Friday will probably offer the best conditions as both swells recede steadily. Winds will become light and variable for the most part, perhaps a moderate southerly into the afternoon, and early 3-4ft sets from both sources will ease to 2-3ft during the day. 

This weekend (Feb 3rd - 4th)

A reinforcing pulse of SE swell will provide great waves over the weekend, plus a small south swell for Sunday will keep south facing beaches active.

This pulse will originate from a brief strengthening of S/SE winds in the SW Tasman Sea on Thursday, resulting from the merger between ex-TC Fehi and the front responsible for last night’s southerly change. The fetch won’t be ideally aimed within our swell window, but its strength and (short lived) width should be sufficient for a decent pulse of energy on Saturday in the 3ft range at south facing beaches. Expect smaller surf elsewhere as the E’ly swell continues to fade. 

On Sunday, a small pulse of S/SE swell will nose into the coast, from a polar front/low in the Southern Ocean currently tracking NE towards New Zealand’s South Island. Again, it’s poorly aligned and the sets will be inconsistent - probably limited to reliable south swell magnets - but we should see occasional 2ft, almost 2-3ft sets at times. Again, smaller elsewhere. 

Light SW winds should veer light to moderate S/SE during both days, so there’ll be reasonably OK conditions on tap. 

Let’s fine tune the specifics on Friday. 

Next week (Feb 5th onwards)

A decent series of fronts will push through the Southern Ocean and lower Tasman Sea from this weekend onwards, generating a reasonable spell of useful south swell for Southern NSW. This swell may reach the Far South Coast late Monday but will be evident across most coasts through Tuesday and likely Wednesday with sets up to 3-5ft or so at south facing beaches. 

Also arriving some time Monday will be a brief pulse of E/NE swell from a deepening trough NE of New Zealand today that’s expected to reach maturity as a strong sub tropical low on Thursday, displaying a broad region of easterly gales. The somewhat short duration within our swell window and the long travel distance will cap wave heights to an inconsistent 3ft+ but there could be some really nice waves from this source later Monday and through Tuesday. 

Elsewhere, there’s still a lot of tropical potential through the South Pacific stemming form a series of system spinning off the monsoon trough. However there’s nothing concrete at this stage so we’ll have to reevaluate in Friday’s notes.