Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 22nd January)

Best Days: No great days this week due to a lack of size. Monday (next week) onwards looking much better as the trade swell kicks in.

Recap: Small leftovers for the last three days, nothing special at all. Size around the 1-2ft range each day (a few slightly bigger sets Sat), with the direction clocking from the SE to the E then NE. Winds have generally been out of the N thru' NE.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl. And hey! We’ve got an extended period of NE winds ahead, which means some upwelling and thus rapidly fluctuating water temps. Time you sorted that autumn fav, the short arm steamer, sooner rather than later. Clicky here for more!

This week (Jan 23rd - 26th)

Not much to see this week. A stationary synoptic pattern will maintain moderate NE winds across the coastal margin from now thru’ next Monday (if that eventuates, it’ll be eleven consecutive days out of the northern quadrant, since last Friday). 

Wind speeds won’t be enough to generate any major size though we’ll see wave heights fluctuate either size of 2ft+; with a few periods slightly bigger, and a few periods slightly smaller. Obviously, you’re more interested in the former rather than the latter, though to be honest wave heights are more likely to to ebb and flow with the tide more than anything else - so there’s no clear definitive window as to when we’ll see worthwhile conditions (or at least, the biggest waves). Especially with the wind generally out of the same quadrant.

Model guidance also has some minor long period southerly energy in the mix throughout the week too, though it’s sourced from very distant Southern Ocean storms and thus won’t contribute much in the way of size or consistency. Tuesday looks to be the most promising day for this small south swell, with Thursday seeing a minor renewal of energy.  

Overall, there should be small peaky waves each day but it’s probably not worth too much time and effort if you’re not already planning to be in the vicinity of the beach. 

This weekend (Jan 27th - 28th)

Nothing great expected this weekend either, however we’ll have some synoptic developments further north that will start to influence our coast ahead of a much better swell outlook for next week.

A stationary Tasman high pressure system will interact with a southward-tracking tropical low in the Coral Sea later this week, strengthening easterly winds through the Northern Tasman Sea and generate trade swells for the east coast. 

Initially they’ll be small in size through the weekend, but they’ll contribute some small energy to the mix along with small, persistent NE windswells similar to what we’re expecting for much of this week. 

Again, winds will remain out of the NE so conditions aren’t looking great, but there’ll be a slightly better blend of peaky surf to pick and choose from this weekend. Only problem will be the ongoing NE breeze but at least there’ll be small peaky waves. At this stage Saturday looks to be around the 2ft+ mark, lifting to 2-3ft+ throughout Sunday as the trade swell becomes more of an influence. 

Next week (Jan 29th onwards)

The southward-tracking tropical low is expected to anchor itself in the Northern Tasman Sea for some time. Which means an extended run of E’ly swell for our northern brethren, with slightly smaller, more E/NE swell for our region. 

Wave heights should lift from 2-3ft+ to 3-4ft+ early next week, and will likely persist aorund this range for at least two or three days. I wouldn't be surprised if we see this tropical low develop more fully over the coming days and deliver a bigger pulse of swell around the middle of next week, several feet higher than the background energy. But it's still very early in the forecast schedule.

In fact, the longer term model guidance suggests there’s a whole lotta tropical activity to bear down through the Coral Sea for the next few weeks, all of which points to two or three weeks of fluctuating trade swell from the east and northeast. 

Ain’t it good to have our summer trade swells back on the horizon! We’ve missed ya, big fella.