Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 8th January)

Best Days: Late Thurs/Fri: fun SE swell, winds may cause a few problems. Sat: peaky NE swell though with tricky winds. Mon/Tues/Wed: plenty of south swell.

Recap: Saturday began small, but a NE windswell built throughout the day with freshening winds from the same direction, reaching 2-3ft Sunday morning as lighter N’ly winds swung to the NW. This swell eased today leaving us with smaller residual 1-2ft energy and early light winds that are now freshening from the NE again. 

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This week (Jan 9th - 12th)

Short story: more of the same. 

Slightly more embellished version: There’ll be small pockets of opportunity this week but you’ll have to be savvy. Next week looks better.

A weak trough across the region will maintain northerly winds off the Mid North Coast into Tuesday, though its position and alignment isn’t great for our region so I am not expecting much size across the coast. 

A late S’ly change (mid-afternoon on the South Coast) will initially deliver only a minor increase in short range S’ly swell for Wednesday, thanks to a short, weak fetch trailing behind. South facing beaches may pick up some low quality 2ft sets but I don’t think there’ll be much in it. Beaches not facing south will be much smaller.

Rapidly easing winds will slowly improve conditions through the morning, though we may see a lingering S’ly breeze at dawn at exposed coasts. Expect an easing trend later in the day. 

Thursday and Friday have more potential. 

As the southerly flow retreats from the coast on Wednesday, the parent low to this change - albeit not especially strong - will have begun to develop in the southern/central Tasman Sea, slowly tracking E/SE towards the southern end of New Zealand. It’s expected to reach maturity through the middle of the day, developing a broad though relatively short lived SE fetch. Its alignment for our coast is good, but it doesn’t hang around for long enough to generate any meaningful size (and the E/SE forward track doesn’t help either).

The other concerning aspect of this swell is its timing. Model guidance has the leading edge pushing through mid-late afternoon Thursday, though we need to allow for some elasticity on the timing due to the slightly unorthodox manner in which which system develops. Although the primary fetch will weaken into Thursday, a secondary fetch will develop off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island, which will maintain smaller energy off backside the initial pulse (i.e. through Friday, into Saturday). 

But.. if this pulse reaches a peak overnight Thursday - as it’s modelled to - then most of the swell will go to waste. 

So, current thinking is we’ll start Thursday with small residual energy from Wednesday, and this should maintain through until the early afternoon at least. 

By Wednesday’s update, we should have more confident in the arrival time of the new SE swell on Thursday, but I doubt we’ll see much energy before 3pm. Very late Thursday will be your best time to aim for a surf (because even if it arrives earlier than scheduled, we’ll still be on the upwards phase).

However, Friday mor​​​​​​​ning is probably the safest chance at maximising this event, with likely wave heights around the 2-3ft mark at south swell magnets, and smaller surf elsewhere. A slight easing trend will occur throughout the day though I don’t think it’ll drop below 2ft at exposed beaches.

As for conditions, Thursday looks great with early light winds and afternoon NE sea breezes. An approaching trough will freshen N/NE winds on Friday (argh!), though early morning should see very light winds, perhaps variable conditions. NE windswells will build into the afternoon though only of very low quality. 

Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday. 

This weekend (Jan 13th - 14th)

Surf conditions look pretty dynamic this weekend. 

Small lingering SE swell from Friday should maintain intermittent energy in the 2ft range at most open beaches, but it'll ease steadily throughout the day.

Friday’s freshening N/NE airstream is expected to build a NE swell somewhere in the 2-3ft range, though winds are tricky - we’ll probably see an accompanying breeze from the same direction however a pre-frontal trough may create periods of light variable winds across some coasts. We’ll have a better idea of this as we draw closer to the day.

A gusty S’ly change is expected to push through on Sunday, and with easing NE windswells we’ll be relying on a boost in short range S’ly swell trailing behind. Early indications are for 4ft+ of windy surf at exposed south facing beaches by the end of the day, and smaller surf elsewhere due to the direction.

Next week (Jan 15th onwards)

A series of intense Southern Ocean lows look like they’ll provide some welcome south swell early/mid next week.

A bombing low south of Tasmania from Friday will initially be poorly aligned (and tracking too quick to the south) to favour surf for Southern NSW, but a later incarnation of the same system as it stalls of the Ice Shelf over the weekend will generate better (though only small) long period S’ly swell that’s due in on Monday or Tuesday. 

However, a more significant system will cross the Tasmanian region early Sunday morning - the parent low to Sunday’s change - and this, plus a series of strong secondary fronts trailing behind - will maintain plenty of moderate south swell from Monday thru’ Wednesday at least. 

Let’s initially flag size around the 3-5ft mark at south facing beaches, and revise over the coming days. 

This weekend will also see some interesting tropical developments between Fiji and New Zealand that could be a source of small long range E/NE swell mid-late next week. But it's still early days.