Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 27th December)

Best Days: Thurs, Fri & Sat mornings: small peaky E'ly (then NE) swells with light winds. Sun: small S'ly swell with light winds through the middle of the day.

Recap: Onshore winds have persisted for the last few days, though Tuesday afternoon saw speeds drop below 10kts. A small E’ly swell built across the region though it hasn’t been particularly strong, sets have hovered around the 2ft+ mark.

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This week (Dec 28 - 29)

Today’s E’ly swell will ease throughout Thursday, and winds will freshen from the N/NE as a weak trough approaches from the west. As such, expect small, slow waves across the region, easing from 1-2ft+ at exposed beaches, smaller at south facing locations.

Thursday afternoon’s NE breeze will generate a minor NE windswell for Friday morning. The trough won’t dramatically change the local wind field but we should see Thursday’s northerly ease to a light and variable breeze Friday morning, before the northerly resumes again into the afternoon. 

Expect size to rebound slightly into the 2ft range at most open NE facing beaches (smaller elsewhere, especially the northern Hunter), with the odd bigger set at reliable NE swell magnets. However it’ll be a slow, weak windswell and quality will be very hard to find.

This weekend (Dec 30 - 31)

The strength of Friday’s NE breeze has been reduced in the latest model runs which has downgraded the surf size potential for Saturday morning. NE facing beaches may see some occasional 2ft sets but it’ll be smaller elsewhere and size is expected to ease throughout the day.

Fortunately, conditions are looking clean with an unstable trough pattern expected across most of the region ahead of a late afternoon southerly change in the south, extending into Sydney coasts overnight. 

This change will quickly clear east into the Tasman Sea on Sunday, with a possible lingering S/SE breeze across a handful of coasts becoming light and variable through the middle of the day, ahead of a late freshening NE breeze. The change won’t have much oomph in its trailing fetch but south facing beaches should pick up some 2ft+ sets on Sunday. Elsewhere, expect a small mix of S’ly swell and leftover NE swell around 1-1.5ft.

Next week (Jan 1st onwards)

The parent low to Saturday’s late S’ly change will be poorly aligned for our coast, but we should see a small associated long period S’ly swell build through Monday, reaching a peak late afternoon across a handful of south facing beaches. 

Most beaches will be lucky to see anything at all, but a couple of locations may pick up some stray 2ft+ sets into the afternoon (smaller early) - and it's more likely that the Hunter will see the upper end of this size range than anywhere else. But, it’s a low percentage event though so I certainly wouldn’t rack up any mileage looking for waves. 

Note: the models aren’t picking up this swell at all, but remember last week’s south swell that produced 3ft+ sets in Newcastle? That also flew under the models’ radar (but not mine). So, keep your eyes open for signs of activity.

A second, stronger series of Southern Ocean lows will track below Tasmania around Sunday and Monday, generating a slightly better south swell likely to arrive later Wednesday or Thursday. This may punch slightly higher (2-3ft in the Hunter, and a handful of south swell magnets) but on the balance it’s not worth getting too excited about.

Elsewhere, the weekend’s trough will move east early next week and meander about the Tasman Sea for a few days, though model guidance suggests it’ll never develop any favourable well generating characteristics (for our coast, anyway). 

Otherwise, the synoptic charts remain benign into the long term which suggests an extended period of minor activity for our coastline. Let’s see how things are looking on Friday.