Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 20th December)

Best Days: Fri/Sat: small mix of swells with light morning winds. 

Recap: Building NE winds and windswells Tuesday, peaking this morning with 2-3ft surf across the Sydney region under a light NW wind.  

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This week (Dec 21st - 22nd)

Thursday still looks pretty ordinary. A gusty southerly change moving into the Sydney region a few hours before dawn will deliver gusty winds to most regions (low chance for a brief period of light winds across the Hunter close to dawn), and this will deliver bumpy conditions just about everywhere.

Today’s NE swell will scale back in size, though the N’ly flow will persist off the Mid North Coast today - shorter in length, and poorly aligned - so we won’t see the NE swell completely bottom out, it’ll just ease back to borderline-rideable heights. Personally, I’d give Thursday a miss. 

The southerly change will however whip up some short range S/SE swell throughout the day - perhaps 2-3ft of sloppy surf at south facing beaches into the afternoon - and this may provide some workable but easing waves early Friday as winds become light and variable (though size will ease steadily during the day). A small, stationary trough will linger off the coast so there’s certainly a risk of onshore winds on Friday; if they develop we won’t see much strength though. 

A minor E/SE fetch off the bottom of the trough will generate some small short range swell for the region too (maybe 1-2ft open beaches from the Illawarra to the Hunter, smaller elsewhere). 

Probably the most interesting feature for Friday is a possible long period S’ly groundswell glancing the coast, from a deep Southern Ocean low currently south of Tasmania (which has generated a morning spike in significant wave heights at Cape Sorell, off Tasmania’s West Coast, to 5.5m). This system is poorly aligned for our region and tracking in an unfavourable direction, but we still can’t ignore the sheer strength and width of the fetch.

As such I am still estimating south facing beaches will pick up some very infrequent 2ft+ sets throughout the day (best chance for this in the Hunter) as the swell energy glances the coast enroute to Fiji. Keep your expectations low though. 

This weekend (Dec 23rd - 24th)

A second, slightly stronger long period S’ly groundswell form the Southern Ocean low may arrive on Saturday. However, thanks to the poor alignment and track of the low, confidence is not high at all that we'll see much, if any surf. 

These flukey south swells sometimes benefit just a handful of locations so I’d be wary about putting in any major mileage chasing surf. The models certainly don’t like this swell either, though it wouldn’t be the first time they’ve missed such an acute pulse of directional energy. 

Fortunately, winds will remain light for Saturday morning so conditions should be clean, ahead of freshening N/NE winds into the afternoon. 

For the most part, most beaches will see a slow mix of residual swells in the 1ft, maybe 1-2ft range if we’re lucky. But a handful of reliable south swell magnets - more likely in the Hunter than anywhere else - may pick up very infrequent 2-3ft sets from this south swell as it glances the region. That’s certainly an optimistic outlook, though with only a low to moderate confidence level you’ll be well advised to check the morning surf reports and monitor the buoys. 

Easing S’ly swells (from whatever arrives Saturday) will prevail on Sunday with freshening N/NE winds, that will also kick up a small local windswell. It won’t be worth too much effort unfortunately - maybe some wobbly 2ft sets at exposed beaches if things pan out well. Again, keep your expectations low.

Next week (Dec 25th onwards)

A gusty S’ly change overnight Sunday will deliver an average quality Xmas S’ly windswell for Monday morning, with sets around 3ft+ at south facing beaches. There’s an outside chance for a few regions to experience lighter SW winds early morning, but overall Xmas Day looks a little ordinary with surf size likely to be smaller at most beaches, being a mix of small easing N/NE windswell and refracted S’ly swell. Wave heights will ease during the day. 

A second round of small S'ly swell from the parent low (to Sunday night's chance) should maintain S'ly energy through Tuesday and Wednesday though no great size is expected. 

Long term possibilities hinge around a potential low off New Zealand’s South Island early in the week, which may set up a SE swell mid-late week. Additionally, a ridge is expected to build through the lower Coral Sea so a small trade swell may also develop towards the second half of the week.

Let’s take a closer look at this on Friday.