Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 27th November)

Best Days: Plenty of steady E/NE swell all week. Strong through bumpy building NE swell Fri/Sat. Sun the pick with an early peak in NE swell and an offshore breeze. Lots of potential into next week too.

Recap: A small E/NE swell built over the weekend, offering 2ft sets on Saturday, building a little more into Sunday. Size has eased back slightly today. Winds have been mainly light early, tending moderate onshore throughout the days. 

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This week (Nov 28th - Dec 1st)

No major changes to the forecast for the rest of this week.

We’ve got a steady though not overly strong trade flow through the South Pacific and Northern Tasman Sea, and this will generate small E/NE swells for the entire forecast period. 

At this stage we’re looking at wave heights holding somewhere in and around the 2ft mark at NE facing beaches throughout the week. South facing beaches will be smaller (as will the northern Hunter), and the surf will be very inconsistent and tidally susceptible, so there’ll be periods of mediocrity in the mix. 

As for winds, we’re looking at a light variable flow tending moderate onshore Tuesday and Wednesday.

An approaching low pressure trough on Thursday will freshen NE winds about the coast into the afternoon, strengthening considerably into Friday, in fact it’ll generate an additional short range NE swell that should reach 2-3ft from very late Thursday throughout Friday, with possibly a few 3ft+ sets late Friday afternoon. However quality will ratchet down due to the presence of these onshore winds. 

This weekend (Dec 2nd - 3rd)

The models have slowed the weekend's approaching trough, but it’s delivering a strong upside for Sydney surfers. 

Essentially, we’re looking at strong NE winds through Saturday that should increase NE facing beaches into the 4-5ft range. Quality will be lacking under the onshore flow, but there’ll be no shortage of surf. A few bigger sets are possible across the South Coast owing to the longer fetch length. 

The trough will cross the coast overnight Saturday, delivering a NW wind change on Sunday morning that’ll groom the lines nicely. Surf size will trend down throughout the day, but early morning should see 3-5ft sets at NE facing beaches, with smaller waves at south facing beaches and across the northern Hunter. Expect a foot or two less by the afternoon. 

The models are split as to how the trough will behave once it pushes off the coast - we may see NW winds continue all day or a gusty S’ly change could also push up the coast into the afternoon. Either way, the early session is looking very attractive. 

As such, Sunday is the pick of the entire forecast period - short range NE swells like this light up a far greater percentage of the NSW coast than south swells, so there should be unreal beach breaks just about everywhere. 

Next week (Dec 4th onwards)

Depending on the evolution of the trough, we may (or may not) see a brief spike in south swell Monday morning from backside southerly flow. If this eventuates it’s likely to be short lived, peaking overnight Sunday and trending down through Monday. 

Otherwise, the long term outlook maintains a lot of activity in the Northern Tasman and South Pacific, with a series of E’ly dips expected to push up against a strong high pressure system occupying the waters east of New Zealand. There’s also a suggestion that we’ll see a broad trough across the East Coast spin up a local system in the Coral Sea early next week, along with another trough/low off the Northern NSW coast.

All of these items signal an active synoptic pattern for our favoured east and north-east swell window for the next couple of weeks, which is very positive for Southern NSW surfers. As such, it looks like there’s plenty of E/NE swell to come in the long term. More on this in Wednesday’s update.