Plenty of good waves for Southern NSW, from just about every direction
Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 18th October)
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Best Days: Sun/Mon, easing Tues: good S'ly groundswell, though inconsistent at times. Tues/Wed: peaky NE windswell. Late Tues/Wed/Thurs: building E/NE swell. Very late Wed/Thurs: punchy S'ly swell.
Recap: Thursday saw a building S/SE swell that peaked during the middle of the day with 4-5ft sets at south facing beaches, and bigger sets across the Hunter. Size has eased rapidly overnight, with south facing beaches seeing occasional 2ft+ sets this morning (bigger across the Hunter with 3ft+ sets, see below). Conditions are clean with early light winds ahead of an afternoon sea breeze.
Newy on the pump this morning, photos from our local surf reporter Dave Anderson.
This weekend (Nov 19th - 20th)
Not much surf is expected on Saturday.
Freshening N/NE winds this afternoon and overnight may whip up a small windswell for exposed beaches, but no great size is expected. The current S/SE swell will have almost completely gone by Saturday too so expect very small residual surf just about everywhere. The Hunter coast may rake in a few stray leftovers but for the most part I'm not enthused about the day's surf prospects anywhere.
A shallow S’ly change will move up the coast during the day, models are showing an early-mid morning arrival across the Sydney region but with no major strength, certainly not enough to whip up any southerly windswell in its wake. Winds should ease back through the afternoon.
Very late Saturday, the Far South Coast (and possibly the South Coast) may see the early forerunners of a long period southerly swell being generated by a very deep Southern Ocean low tracking well south of Tasmania. The models have moved around on this quite a bit over the week; downgrading slightly between Monday and Wednesday but the latest guidance looks a little more promising with a better fetch position, and I’m now a little more confident that we’ll see some decent sets across the region.
Sunday is the day for this swell across most coasts, it’ll build steadily through the morning and then plateau into the afternoon, with inconsistent sets around 3-4ft at south facing beaches, and bigger waves across offshore bombies and the Hunter Coast around 4-5ft+. Beaches not open to the south will be smaller (infrequent 2ft) but the good news is that we can expect light variable winds and sea breezes, with great surface conditions for the most part.
For what its worth, these estimates are around double what our surf model is estimating (2ft for south facing beaches in Sydney). I’ve previously discussed how the global swell model (which produces the initial swell predictions which our surf model is based on) doesn’t pick up these kinds of southerly swells very well so I’m expecting the surf to push up quite a bit above these modelled heights.
The primary low generating this swell is expected to undergo several transformations over the coming days, resulting in a couple of secondary pulses, the next of which is due across Sydney beaches on Monday - however we may see this push across the Far South and South Coasts very late Sunday afternoon too.
Next week (Nov 21st onwards)
As mentioned above, this Southern Ocean low will move slowly through our swell window, and a number of individual fetches will spin up around the low, each contributing new long range swell from the southern quadrant early next week.
As such, Monday is looking at a continuation of long period, inconsistent south swell with occasional sets in the 3-4ft range though a slight easing trend may occur during the day. As per usual expect bigger waves across the Hunter and at offshore bombies.
Winds are looking tricky on Monday as an approaching cut off low west of Tasmania squeezes against a high pressure system in the eastern Tasman Sea, freshening northerly winds about most regions. There should be a period of light variable (or maybe offshore) winds at dawn but for the most part you’ll need to look for some protection from the wind.
These southerly swells will then ease more steadily through Tuesday along with a freshening N/NE flow as a shallow southerly change approaches the South Coast. There’ll also be a mix of NE windswell, in fact both swell trains (S and NE) could be of a similar size at their respective exposed beaches (2-3ft sets, maybe some bigger waves from the NE).
The shallow southerly change may arrive through Tuesday afternoon (timing is not yet clear) but otherwise it doesn’t look like it’ll influence our wind or swell prospects through Wednesday.
However, a second, stronger (unrelated) southerly change is due to arrive some time on Wednesday and it’ll deliver gusty southerly winds to most parts - probably from lunchtime onwards - wiping out conditions at south facing beaches but bringing a solid increase in short range swell to the coast (very late 3-4ft sets are possible, but may not show until overnight therefore favouring Thursday morning).
Early Wednesday morning should see light variable winds across most regions ahead of the change.
Also in the water on Wednesday - possibly starting to appear on Tuesday afternoon (though it’ll be hard to discern beneath the other swell trains) is a building E/NE swell, originating from a southward moving tropical depression that’s expected to form in the Coral Sea today.
This system will reach maturity whilst aimed away from our swell window, so the eventual surf across Southern NSW will be smaller but still very fun with set waves in the 3ft+ range through Wednesday afternoon and early Thursday.
Looking further ahead and another series of Southern Ocean fronts are expected to bring more south swell for next weekend, but until then there’s a lot of swells to manage! So let’s take a closer look on Monday.
Have a great weekend!
Comments
ASCAT images from the low south of Tas - whilst aimed outside of our window - are off the hook (broad 50-55kt swathe). Wouldn't be surprised if Sunday delivers a few rogue sets above my estimations (above), especially so at offshore bombies and across the Hunter.
I must say this has been the best spring in my memory and its continuing.
Usally I almost pack my boards away and start playing racing cars this year
im looking at stepups. Love it. Cars getting dusty boards getting waxed.
sorry best spring you must not live in Sydney it has been one of the worst springs on the northern beaches any south swell is a waste of time her
Where did the waves come from this morning? 3-4ft east long period swell here in Shellharbour
Couldn't agree more Peter, total dogshit for months
Well that so called NE swell of the decade this year was absolute rubbish for me.
Yes I'm in Sydney and my area goes off on south swells but its twice as crowded
then the north side. My local also has pretty much the worse beach breaks in
NSW and we get no summer waves at all. So live with what you got I stand by
original post.
Easy big fella. No need to get upset
I agree one of the better springs in memory. Swell hasn't stopped, been so many different directions and waves, if you can get out of Sydney on the weekend's to chase them it's been super fun!
Buoy data has shot up in Sydney, easy 3-4ft sets appearing at Bondi now. Should punch a little higher through the rest of the day.
I'd also agree with this being one of the better springs in recent years. Nothing spectacular but plenty of decent surfable days every week ... much better than the weeks of grovel in some years past
Good sand banks can define a good spring, for most people there's no point having heaps of swell if it's just close out city
I'll side with Evo, this spring has been pretty damn sensational with everything from sustained peaky beachbreaks to length-of-the-point runners and even a few top heavy days at the local slaughterhouse. Everything except for protracted flat spells with strong westerlies which is the norm for spring. No need to roam far from home, either.
Stunt- what would you describe the standard crowd situation as in your parts these days ?
Hard to put a number on it, but it ain't too bad. Despite the recent influx we're still a few notches below Sydney-style concentrations. Only time you'd get anything comparable is on red letter days at the point, or when conditions only allow one or two waves to work. Saturday and Sunday monings can be frustrating but I guess that's the same most places near a big city. Still pretty damn easy to zig when others are zagging, or even just cut a straight line into the Nasho and skip crowds altogether.
The aforementioned 'slaughterhouse' gets pretty jammed, there's a new crew coming on and they're cocky and fearless. Sun's almost setting on my days there anyway.
The slaughterhouse ?
Is that the spot that's verging on the ridiculous ?
Why are your days numbered out there ?
Hanging up your six guns before you get shot down ?
I'd say the hard core locals in your neck of the woods would rival any locals in Australia for their entitled attitudes on their spots.
I just don't understand how you can say it's been sensational. Sure there's been swell, but without banks(that the majority of Sydney surfspots need, it's kind of a waste? Case in point is your pic today which shows Bondi just before it closes out. Maybe it's just the northern beaches, but sorry to say it ain't been sensational.
But if you've been getting great waves, good luck to you!
"I just don't understand how you can say it's been sensational. Sure there's been swell, but without banks(that the majority of Sydney surfspots need, "
I'd say it's been sensational compared to other spring seasons (not autumn or winter). September was ordinary, fortunately I was out of the water injured, but mid- to late October pumped, especially that Sunday-Monday-Tuesday south swell (cant recall dates). It hit all the right buttons at my local, guys paddling back out bug-eyed. And then there was Cronulla Point! I knew it was gonna be on but couldn't drive away.
Kicked myself hard when I heard Greg Noll call it "Just like the islands". He flew in on the Tuesday, got driven to the point, looking down upon the place he introduced modern surfing sixty years earlier. By all reports, and photos, it was roaring.
There's also been a few sessions at the other end of the bay. Say no more...
Feels like at least once a week we've copped sideband energy from long range swells, enough to spark up the rock shelves and points. Though I guess you've gotta live somewhere with rock shelves and points, something Cronulla and the Coal Coast have got in spades.
Yep, that spot.
I chased it a lot 10-15 years ago, yet since I've moved down here I rarely surf it. Part of the reason is walking away before being slapped. A mate who's a couple years younger than me had a horror wipeout on the day 'South Coast Roast' was filmed, said he did five somersaults and was waiting for his head to crack reef. He got away with it but wondered how much longer his luck would run. I feel the same.
The other reason has do to with application; whenever it's on so is the point and that's the place I'd rather establish my position. Even if it's not as hollow, that's where my next 20+ years are gonna be spent so gotta start laying the sleepers.
And yeah, they're a fucken hardcore bunch who are very vocal, even physical, about their wave. The 'order of things' out there is well known and well maintained - the way it should be. Sometimes spills over into violence but it's mainly 'social coercion' that does the job - again, the way it should be.
I had a few run ins during the early days - stand offs in the carpark, heavy words in the surf - but it's cool now. You just keep turning up, especially on those big days, judge heats at boardriders, let sets go to the blokes who've devoted their lives to the place, and the milk of human kindness eventually drips through.
...or at least they stop telling you to fuck off.
For a grumpy bunch o' cunts in the water they've got a real sense of civic spirit. If anyone hits hard times they're quick with a chook raffle or whip around, all proceeds into a brown paper bag. Last year they cleared the point when one bloke lost his son. Held everyone off so he and his daughter could surf it alone. Who can argue against that sort of spirit?
I'm one of the newcomers in the community but it's pretty fucken clear what the standards are.
I think you've just inadvertently hit the journalistic high water mark for encapsulating the Australian surfing lifestyle.
That's what it's all about - give respect to gain respect. Then, if the fuckers don't oblige ,make them acknowledge you ....and they'll love you for it.
Then when things hit the skids, the whole community acts as a whole in the interest of the collective or the individual as the case dictates.
Stoked you've made a place for yourself amongst a worthy crew.
If everyone had that the world would be a fine place.
Definitely worse places to stake your claim .
Rock on.
Might even drop in on you next autumn.
How good does that sound ?
PS. Can't really over emphasise how much of a fan I am of the Swellnet team's whole approach to discretion regarding spots . A fucking succinct lesson for a few out there, that's for sure.
Up the other end of the bay.....beautifully done. Acknowledged without blowing the entire show out of the water.
PPS . As for THAT ledge .....https://m.
I agree there were some good moments in spring. Mostly in oct,however they coincided with good winds and sand. Those long period dead south swells can be hit and miss on the beachies. Good for certain spots up my way but they're very specialised so they congest the crowd.
Wouldnt mind seeing some of those north east swells muscle up a notch to get a few points/reefs/ beachies working. A good north east swell with good winds opens up heaps more options than south swells I reckon
Cheers Blowin. Drop into my abode and you'll be met by three wild colonial boys. Drop in out the point and you'll be met with a board up the arse.
Where are you Scouser? Cenny Coast...?
Yeah mate, central coast, not too bad, has its moments
Today's swell super strong and powerful but too straight. 3-4ft+ sets Freshy so Curly would of been 4-5ft I'd imagine.
I went out at Curly about 5.30 Craig and there were sets around 4ft but it dropped off really quickly and was back to 2ft by 6.30. I got a few but pretty disappointing in the end.
See in my neck of the woods the swell today was big enough to ride my
stepup. Love south swells and rocks.
Stu you me and the whole world knows cronulla point never gets anygood
or any other place in bate bay. Its a god forsaken wave waste land.
And you reckon you're a newcomer that still has to earn their place in the line up ?
Strange then that your offer to shelve your 28 litre 5'8" asymmetric in my colon is exactly as any born and bred local would have done under the same circumstance.
I think you've found your spiritual home.
And it's a beauty.
Ride a boogie board
I cant remember September which probably means it was bad, but October and Nov have been excellent in my neck of the woods, which is the same as Evosurfer's. Remember that three day south swell that was undercalled/missed? Did wonders around here, and that's on top of the south swells mentioned above. All in all a very good season.