Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 3rd August)

Best Days: Late Sat (South Coast) and Sun: solid S/SE swell with light winds. Ahead of this swell (i.e. Sat AM) we should see fun, lumpy but improving surf in most regions. Mon: smaller S/SE swell with light offshore winds. Wed: mod new SE swell. Thurs/FriSat: potential for an E/SE swell.

Recap: Small residual S’ly swell on Tuesday morning with early light offshore winds, aheads of a gusty S’ly change during the middle of the day and an afternoon increase in short range S’ly swell. We’re now seeing solid 4-6ft surf across south facing beaches though conditions are terrible with gale force southerly winds. Winds were however SW for most of this morning, south from the northern Illawarra (i.e. Bellambi).

This week (Thursday 4th - Friday 5th August):

Thursday looks bloody terrible for surfers in southern NSW, and Friday doesn’t look much better either.

We’ve got a small low forming off the Northern NSW coast and a ridge to the south is driving strong to gale force southerly winds across our region. Winds may shift a little more S/SE on Thursday.

As for swell, there’s going to be a mix of energy in the water. A new low is forming off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island, and this will generate some fresh SE swell for Thursday afternoon and Friday. We’re also looking at easing S’ly swell from today (on Thursday), as well as some short range S/SE swell spreading off the ridge that’s occupying the western Tasman Sea.  

Long story short: most locations will see poor conditions on Thursday, with not really enough size for anything amazing inside sheltered southern corners. Exposed south facing beaches should see set waves somewhere in the 4-6ft range, with bumpy 3ft surf at remaining open beaches. As the SE swell fills in throughout the afternoon the spread of size between south facing and remaining open beaches should narrow a little, but it's not worth rearranging your diary for.

As for Friday - all of these elements (swells and winds) will slowly ease back from Thursday. There’s a chance for a brief period of lighter SW winds early morning though this will probably be confined to select parts of the South Coast, and possibly the Northern Beaches. I really wouldn’t get your hopes up though; open south facing beaches should see occasional 4ft to maybe 6ft sets early morning, easing a little during the day, with smaller 3ft surf at remaining beaches. Southern ends will be your best choice for a wave.

This weekend (Saturday 6th - Sunday 7th August)

We’re still on track for a really good renewal of swell this weekend, though the timing is moving around a little. 

Most of the energy seen on Friday will ease into Saturday morning, and winds should also ease - though without the presence of a synoptic offshore, there’s likely to be some leftover surface wobble to begin with. That being said it should be a heck of a lot better than what we have right now (and will see tomorrow).

The new groundswell is expected to originate from a polar low that’s modelled to track in a straight meridional alignment through the central/eastern lower Tasman Sea later Thursday, pushing up a strong round of S/SE energy. However, the models have slowed down its forward speed and slightly reigned in the fetch strength since Monday’s model runs, meaning the swell will probably be a little smaller than first anticipated and will also arrive a little later. 

At this stage we’re looking at a mid-late afternoon arrival in Sydney on Saturday (earlier on the South Coast), so the early session should see leftover 3-4ft surf at most open beaches, and mainly light variable winds. I am little concerned that this new swell may not kick until too late in the day to be of benefit to the Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra regions. 

As such, Sunday morning may be a better option. This swell is expected to reach peak in the early hours of Sunday morning, with set waves pushing 4-6ft at exposed south facing beaches. Winds should remain light and variable for much of the day and as we will have had a longer period of calmer conditions, Sunday is shaping up to offer the cleanest waves of the four day forecast period. 

Beaches not open to the south will be smaller in size but on the balance this is looking to be a great second half of the weekend. If you’re on the South Coast though, Saturday should also offer some good waves as the swell kicks in early-mid afternoon. 

Next week (8th August onwards)

Lots of models manoeuvrings over the last few days, with a few interesting systems popping up for next week.

At this stage Monday's touted tropical developments in our E/NE swell window have been scaled back, but there’s now a suggestion for a small to moderate SE swell off another meridionally aligned polar low through the Tasman Sea (arriving mid-next week), that could evolve into a slow moving trough with potential for a long lived source of E/SE swell through the second half of the week and next weekend. 

More on that in Friday’s update.