Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 1st August)

Best Days: Wed/Thurs/Fri: lots of S'ly swell but winds will be an issue. Sat: large S/SE groundswell with possibly good winds. Sun: large, easing S/SE groundswell with light winds. 

Recap: The weekend delivered some great waves across the region. Saturday saw easing size from Friday with sets around 3ft+ at south facing beaches, but Sunday rebuilt back up to 3-5ft and conditions remained clean with light offshore winds. Bigger surf was reported across the Hunter. Today, surf size has eased a little (~3ft) and conditions are continuing to be clean with light offshore winds. 

This week (Tuesday 2nd - Friday 5th August):

We’ve got a very dynamic period ahead, with lots of surf and wind for the entire forecast period.

We’ll kick of proceedings on Tuesday morning with a low point in energy. Today’s swell is expected to fade further and early offshore winds winds will keep conditions clean ahead of a SW change around lunchtime that’ll swing more S’ly during the afternoon. Aim for exposed south facing beaches for an early paddle if you want to get a quick session in before the onslaught of southerly winds. 

These winds should generate a late kick in short range S’ly swell (low quality 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches by dark), but a better quality S’ly groundswell is due on Wednesday, originating from the parent low SE of Tasmania. It should be a little bigger but unfortunately despite the longer wavelength, surface conditions will be wrecked with mainly fresh S/SE winds thanks to a developing low off the Far Northern NSW coast. 

As a result, Wednesday looks pretty ordinary for open stretches. There’s a chance for an early SW breeze (mainly from Sydney to the South Coast) but it’s a low percentage game at best. South facing beaches should build into the 4-6ft range but the best options will be at sheltered locations where it’ll be a lot smaller owing to the swell direction. 

The parent low/front responsible for Wednesday’s pulse will have tracked to a position off the West Coast of New Zealand’s South Island by this time, and will be setting up a new SE swell that’s due later Thursday or early Friday. 

As such, we’re looking at a combo of swells on Thursday - easing S’ly groundswell from Wednesday, steady mid-range S’ly swell from a secondary fetch occupying the south-western Tasman Sea, and some short range E/SE swell extending off the developing low off the Far North Coast (this latter system will be aimed mainly into the North Coast but we’ll still see a small spread down here). 

Early ballpark figures for Thursday is 4-6ft surf at south facing beaches, with 3ft surf at remaining beaches, and mainly moderate to fresh S/SE winds - only a very slim chance for an early sou’wester. I'm not terribly excited about Thursday right now. 

Friday looks like we’ll see continuing SE winds though a little lighter in strength, and with a better quality SE swell pushing into the mix we may potentially see some decent waves across the coast (lightest winds wile found in the Far South). At this stage I’m expecting surf size to fall away throughout the day, though probably still holding 4-5ft at beaches facing due south (and smaller elsewhere). But given that the synoptics are evolving rapidly at the moment - and have done some major changes just in the last 24 hours - so it’s too early to pin down specifics. Let's take a look on Wednesday.

This weekend (Saturday 6th - Sunday 7th August)

I think the best swell from this broader Tasman progression is going to arrive on Saturday. Whether the local winds play ball remains to be seen though.

A polar low is expected to track in a straight meridional alignment through the central/eastern lower Tasman Sea around Thursday, pushing up a strong S/SE swell that’s due to reach our coast at some point on Saturday. At this stage I’m expecting easy 6ft+ sets at exposed spots into the afternoon (and if the period gets large enough, some considerably larger waves at offshore reefs). 

Surf size will then ease through Sunday though it’ll probably still retain plenty of its strong characteristics, especially in the morning. 

As for local winds, we may see the associated front from this system clip the southern NSW coast, keeping us in a moderate S’ly breeze on Saturday though chances are pretty good we’ll see early SW breezes. Light variable winds are then due on Sunday with great conditions in all areas. 

Let’s see how the models are looking on Wednesday. 

Next week (8th August onwards)

Looks like a period of smaller surf settling in for next week. There are some indications that our tropical swell window (trades between Fiji and NZ) may become active early in this period, which could lead to a new E/NE swell sometime mid-late next week, but this is still a very long time away. More on this in Wednesday’s update.