Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Monday 27th June)

Best Days: Tuesday and Saturday.

Recap: 

What a weekend. If you were brave enough to face the cold, you would’ve likely scored with the surf failing to drop below 4ft all weekend, up to 6ft at times along the Hunter. Offshore breezes kept conditions clean, and have continued to do so today as the swell continues to provide great options from 4-6ft.

This week (Tuesday 28th - Friday 1st):

The showers and cloud cover which have been lingering over the eastern seaboard today is as a result of a low pressure trough with strong upper level support inland. This trough has been shifting offshore this afternoon and we are starting to see an embedded Tasman Low develop as a result.

Gusty southerly breezes along the western flank of this system will increase this evening, moving up the NSW coast into Tuesday morning. The strongest fetches of 35-45kts look to hug the Hunter/Macquarie coast, a touch too far north for the Sydney coast to do well. 

Instead, the less intense southerly trailing fetches should whip up a short range southerly swell to around 3-4ft at south facing beaches on Tuesday late morning/afternoon, a touch larger across the Hunter.

While the initial southerly energy will dissipate fairly quickly overnight, southeasterly energy is expected to fill in generated by fetches off the southern quadrants off this low.

A kick in size is probably wishful thinking, although we should see options hold in the 2-3ft range into Wednesday afternoon, easing from the 2ft range on Thursday as each swell window slows down.

Conditions should remain largely clean and workable in the next few days, with southwesterly winds dominating Tuesday, and westerly breezes tending light/variable on Wednesday.

Any frontal activity looks to steer weak, small and poorly aligned fetches across the Southern Ocean in the days following, before a new system breaks the cycle on Friday.

Again, the storm track of this front isn’t anything overly substantial. Instead of seeing a strong and broad fetch pushing up from the Southern Ocean in good alignment to the eastern Australia, we are in for a strengthening local fetch intensifying off the far South Coast of NSW.

Modest southwesterly fetches on the leading edge of this front may whip up a small amount of short range energy on Friday afternoon at south facing beaches, but nothing overly exciting, perhaps 1-2ft, larger on the Hunter. Instead, the strongest winds (30-35kts) look to peak overnight Friday providing most of the size for the weekend.

Conditions are expected to remain clean for the rest of the week, despite becoming small. Thursday should see breezes tend northwesterly once again, possibly swinging north/northwesterly at times, persisting into Friday.

This weekend (Saturday 2nd - Sunday 3rd):

Exposed south swell magnets should offer peaks in the 4-5ft range on Saturday morning as a result of gusty southerly breezes hugging the coast the night before. This energy should ease fairly quickly however, being reinforced only by weak trailing fetches which look fairly insignificant.

Swell should ease form around 2ft on Sunday, although remaining clean as southwesterly breezes gradually swing back westerly late on the weekend.

More detail on Wednesday.