Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 24th June)

Best Days: Sat: windy with a solid building S'ly swell. Sun/Mon: solid pulsey S'ly tending S/SE swells with light offshore winds. Thurs/Fri: offshore winds and potentially solid, albeit easing swells from another Tasman Low. 

Recap: Plenty of fun small waves out of the south thru' Thursday with offshore winds. Wave heights have eased right back today, with tiny clean conditions across most beaches under a gusty offshore breeze.  

This weekend (Saturday 25th - Sunday 26th):

The models have moved around a little over the last few days regarding the development of the Tasman Low. It still looks really impressive on paper however the primary fetch will be aimed mainly away from the Australian East Coast, so the surf we see across Southern NSW will be mainly sideband energy.

This will reduce the potential size across the coast, and the consistency too. Fortunately conditions will remain reasonably clean (if quite blustery) on Saturday with gusty SW winds, ahead of much cleaner surf on Sunday as winds tending lighter W’ly.

Saturday’s surf will trend upwards all day. Initially, we’re looking at S/SW gales developing just off the South Coast overnight tonight, and they’ll generate highly directional, short range S’ly swell through Saturday morning. At the same time (early hours of Saturday morning), the fetch will broaden across the southern Tasman Sea as the Tasman Low started to take shape, and this will generate a slightly less directional S’ly swell that should fill across the coast into the afternoon. 

The benefits of this secondary development will extend from the more southern position of its fetch, as the first airstream developing close to the coast overnight won’t allow the wave length to draw out to any appreciable level. This means that although south facing beaches should start to see plenty of size through Saturday, beaches with less southerly exposure will be considerably smaller in the morning (in fact, protected southern corners could remain tiny for much of the day, or until the secondary S’ly swell starts to fill in).

On Sunday, we should see much better conditions with lighter offshore winds and a better quality S’ly swell that’ll probably tend S/SE during the day.

As for wave heights, I’ve slightly revised down the size estimates for the weekend - south facing beaches should push upwards into the 4-6ft range throughout Saturday afternoon (starting off smaller) but it’ll be considerably smaller in size at remaining beaches, and tiny inside southern corners.

Sunday looks promising, with a secondary push from S/SE that should push back up into the 4-6ft range at south facing beaches though there may be a period of down time in between swells, during the morning (so don’t be surprised if the dawn patrol is somewhat undersized).

More notably, Sunday should see a slightly smaller difference in size across the coast (between exposed and protected spots) thanks to the swell direction swinging anti-clockwise, with open beaches rebuilding back up to 3-4ft (again, probably a little smaller in the morning). However the southerly swell direction will continue to create very small waves in protected southern corners. 

Next week (Monday 27th onward):

A third and final pulse of S/SE swell off the backside of the Tasman Low is expected on Monday, and should provide good quality surf across most open Sydney beaches in and around the 3-4ft range (upper end of this size range at south facing beaches, smaller elsewhere). Surf size will however ease throughout the day. A weak high pressure system across the coast should generate light offshore winds, so it’ll be well worth sniffing out a beach break.

This swell will continue to ease steadily into Tuesday but the outlook for the following days is tricky with another Tasman Low expected to form off the Sydney coast during Tuesday, initially driving strong S/SW tending S’ly winds across the coastal margin and generating a solid but short range S/SE swell throughout the afternoon. At this stage early indications are it’ll be average quality at best with poor local winds for most beaches.

Tasman lows are complex systems, and some of the model projections for Tuesday’s development are promising for a brief, sizeable pulse of E’ly swell in and around the Wednesday, holding into Thursday morning before easing. However we really need a few more days for the most guidance to consolidate and converge.

My main concern with this next Tasman Low - relative to the Southern NSW coast - is that it’s expected to form more north in latitude than usual, which may very well focus the bulk size to locations north of Seal Rocks and up into Northern NSW. But let’s see how things are looking on Monday.

Either way, the mid-week Tasman Low will dominate our swell window until Thursday morning (meaning we should see some kind of energy from it across the coast from Wednesday through into Friday). Strengthening offshore winds are expected later in the week as yet another classic winter frontal progression approaches from thew west, bringing the chances of yet another strong Tasman Low - and sizeable windy surf - to the region for next weekend. 

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!