Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Wednesday 22nd June)

Best Days: Saturday and Sunday.

Recap: 

After a fairly mundaine morning, a fresh pulse of southerly swell moved up the coast on Tuesday afternoon, providing sets up to 3ft at south facing beaches, larger across the Hunter. Sets were holding at a similar size this morning, with some exposed swell magnets offering sets over 4ft.

This energy has subsequently faded, although conditions have remained clean for the majority of each day under persistent west/northwesterly winds.

This week (Thursday 23rd - Friday 24th):

A similar fetch to the one that generated yesterday/today’s southerly pulse has been moving over eastern parts of Bass Strait today, with west/southwesterly core fetches of 35-40kts. Refracted southerly energy should move up the coast of NSW overnight tonight, before filling into south facing beaches from around mid-morning on Thursday.

South facing beaches should pickup sets in the 3ft range, larger across the Hunter and potentially undersized along the South Coast due to the inability to spread inwards at that angle.

Southerly energy should fade during Friday, with leftover energy dwindling from around 1-2ft at south facing beaches, with the Hunter highlighting this energy once again.

Conditions should remain clean for the remainder of the week with northwesterly breeze persisting on Thursday, only tending westerly and becoming gusty on Friday.

This weekend (Saturday 25th - Sunday 26th):

The situation has changed slightly regarding the large southerly pulse for Saturday. The strong front and cut-off low responsible for this energy is looking weaker, but remaining active close to the coast for a longer period of time.

Initial westerly fetches should tend southwesterly and increase to around 40kts on Friday afternoon and evening, with more distant core winds of 45-50kts over the central Tasman sea.

Even throughout Saturday, gusty south/southwesterly fetches should hug the coast (despite weakening somewhat) with the main core fetch remaining active over the central Tasman and becoming elongated.

As a result, Saturday is looking to build to the 6ft range from the mid-range fetches. Although easing slowly, Sunday is also likely to still pick up good southerly swell tending southeasterly as the more distant groundswell fills in. Sets should ease slowly from around 5-6ft throughout the day. During this period the Hunter is likely to offer bigger sets.

Gusty west/southwesterly breezes are on the cards for Saturday morning, tending southwesterly and easing slightly throughout the day. As the front and low move offshore, west/southwest breezes should ease further on Sunday, tending west/northwesterly and potentially even northeasterly in the afternoon.

Next week (Monday 27th onward):

A second pulse off the southern extention of the strong core fetch over the Tasman is expected to fill in overnight into Monday, maintaining sets in the 5-6ft range in the morning.

Conditions are expected to remain workable with a west/northwesterly breeze swinging southwesterly later in the day.

Easing southeasterly fetches along the southern quadrants of the low off the bottom of New Zealand should maintain moderate amounts of swell into Tuesday and Wednesday.

Otherwise, there are hints that a front may steer a west/southwesterly fetch through Bass Strait later on Monday, persisting throughout Tuesday before projecting up through the Tasman into Wednesday.

While the alignment, intensity and size of this fetch could be better, south facing beaches should have the potential to pick up workable size, but at this stage confidence is dicey.

At this stage, gusty south/southwesterly breeze may limit options on Tuesday, with Wednesday looking better as winds tend west/northwesterly and ease.

More detail as the situation develops on Friday.