Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Wednesday 15th June)

Best Days: Thursday morning, Friday at south facing beaches and early next week.

Recap: 

Open beaches picked up a late pulse of easterly groundswell to around 2-3ft on Monday, holding at a similar size throughout Tuesday, before easing today. Southerly groundswell has replaced the fading easterly energy today, with sets building to the 4ft range at south facing beaches.

As for wave quality, light offshore breezes have kept conditions generally clean and workable into the afternoon, particularly Tuesday which failed to see a seabreeze develop at all.

This week (Thursday 16th - Friday 17th):

A second southerly pulse following hot on the heels of today’s kick should maintain sets in 3ft to occasionally 4ft range on Thursday, with the Hunter highlighting this size and offering a touch more size.

Meanwhile, refracted trade energy generated by a fetch better aligned to southeastern QLD should provide occasional sets in the 2ft+ range across open beaches.

Yet again, the morning holds the best chances of a clean wave, with northwesterly breezes only tending north/northeasterly from the afternoon.

A fresh southerly groundswell is then on the cards for Friday, generated by a particularly strong system which has been traversing the Southern Ocean in a zonal motion.

Core westerly winds of 50-60kts south of the Bight have been pushing east towards the swell window of NSW, while only easing a fraction.

Refracted energy from this powerful fetch should provide very strong, very long period sets in the 3-5ft range, with selected swell magnets possibly offering bombs around 6ft, especially along the Hunter. 

It is worth considering however that the very long period nature of this swell (19 seconds) is likely to light up some parts of the coast rather than others. As the long period swells impact deeper in the water column, they can often be steered away from the coast depending on the localised bathymetry, so don’t be surprised if you find a significant difference in wave height between locations.

Left over easterly trade-energy should dial back to the 2ft range at open beaches, although this will likely be overshadowed by the more dominant southerly swell.

Finding a clean wave may be tricky however, with breezes swinging northerly and threatening to tend north/northeasterly at times. More exposed south facing locations will pick up the most size but also offer the best protection from the wind.

This weekend (Saturday 18th - Sunday 19th):

Left over energy will be the main contributor of swell on Saturday, with sets in the 3ft range continuing to break at south facing beaches off the back of Friday’s strong pulse, perhaps a touch larger across the Hunter.

Sunday is expected to fade further, with new energy on the cards from system which is forecast to develop over the Tasman.

Breezes should slowly swing from the southwest to south/southeast on Saturday, so make the most of the early session while there is still some west in the wind. Otherwise, save it. Quality will be hard to come by on Sunday as an easterly breeze pushes into the coast.

Next week (Friday 20th onward):

There has been a lot of hype over a second system following soon after last week’s powerful ECL, but to be completely honest, the two systems don’t really compare. Sure, the weekend is looking very wet, but the swell, wind and storm track of these systems are very different (this system moves mostly over land, quickly to the east and with less intensity). 

Nevertheless, lets focus on the surf. A northeasterly in feed late on Sunday should whip up around 3-4ft of east/northeasterly swell on Monday, fading slowly on Tuesday only slowed by the more distant extension of this northeasterly fetch. 

The main limiting factor of this fetch is the rapid eastward motion, leaving only a brief period of time for swell generation.

Southerly energy off the southern quadrants of this system as it moves offshore (off the far South Coast of NSW) also looks modest, with the main fetches showing a less than ideal southwesterly alignment.

As the low moves away and the NSW coast comes under the influence of a westerly airflow, conditions should remain clean for the best part of Monday and Tuesday offering clean, workable conditions.

More detail on Friday.