Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Friday 13th May)

Best Days: Each morning. Keep an eye on Wednesday.

Recap: 

There’s no denying that the initial pulses of southerly swell over the past couple of days have severely under performed, likely due to the zonal nature of the swell track. Usually when we see a westerly fetch exit Bass Strait, the swell will spread northward, favouring the Sydney and Hunter coasts, but leaving the South Coast undersized.

On this occasion, it seems that the axis of the swell spread was focused further north over the Mid-North Coast and left Sydney (and to some extent the Hunter) disappointed with inconsistent sets building to 3ft, with the odd 4ft set on dark at exposed south facing beaches. Instead, locations further north picked up better energy, with options up to 3-4ft+ on Thursday morning with another pulse providing sets of a similar size today.

This under performance across the Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra coasts will be taken into consideration for the coming days, with the forecast scaled accordingly.

This weekend (Saturday 14th - Sunday 15th):

A front which passed over Tasmania overnight steered a pair of fetches through our swell window - a stalling westerly fetch exiting Bass Strait and a broader west/southwesterly to the southeast of Tasmania, weakening.

Taking the recent underperformance into account, energy off this system should only be modest, with inconsistent sets holding in the 2ft to occasional 3ft range at south facing beaches on Saturday morning, with a touch more size across the Hunter coast (smaller South Coast).

The morning is looking clean with a light west/northwesterly breeze slowly swinging northeasterly into the afternoon.

A low and front looks to approach from the west this afternoon, once again moving in a zonal west-easterly motion with a fair bit of pace across our swell window. The storm track, size and intensity of this system leaves a bit to be desired, but due to its position further south, we shouldn’t have any issues seeing the energy pass us by. Instead, the southerly energy should spread into the coast providing sets in the 2ft+ range on Sunday morning (larger across the Hunter), easing throughout the day.

Conditions should remain clean for the majority of the day, with northwesterly breezes tending light west/northwesterly later.

Next week (Monday 16th onward):

An elongated fetch then looks to develop east of Tasmania late on Sunday night steering 30-40kt southwesterly winds. This should provide a small increase across south facing beaches on Monday afternoon, fading into Tuesday with sets in the 2ft range.

The morning session is likely to be cleanest under a light west/northwesterly breeze, with small residual energy in the water. By the time the swell builds in the afternoon however, a light northeasterly sea breeze should have developed. Otherwise, Tuesday is looking clean under a persistent westerly breeze.

Leading into Tuesday, a strong low should pass over Tasmania. Although strong, the fetches moving over eastern parts of Bass Strait look too west/northwest to rely at first. Late on Tuesday they look to tend more west/southwesterly which should provide good energy to south facing beaches, with options building to the 3-4ft range on Wednesday, larger across the Hunter.

Make the most of the morning session on Wednesday with conditions likely to be at their best under a west/southwesterly breeze.

Fetches on the southern and western quadrants of this system are much better aligned as this low moves over the Tasman Sea on Wednesday, however in the most recent models run, the elongated southeasterly fetches have been downgraded. Not only that, but this system looks to dart across the swell window, leaving very little time for good swell generation. As a result, south facing beaches should see options in the 2ft range on Thursday, with a touch more size on Friday with options around 2-3ft.

Conditions should remain clean to end the week, with offshore breezes persisting.

Have a great weekend.