Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Wednesday 23rd March)

Best Days: Each morning.

Recap: 

We saw a drop in size into Tuesday, with most spots picking up sets in the 3-4ft range during the morning under a southwesterly breeze, with the high tide being the only limiting factor, making for slightly fat, full waves. As the afternoon progressed, a gusty south/southwesterly breeze made for choppy conditions at exposed south facing beaches, with the protected spots offering the only workable options.

We have seen a fresh pulse of southerly groundswell which has exceeded expectations to be completely honest. Solid sets in the 4-5ft range are breaking across exposed south facing beaches generated by an intense system located to the southwest of Tassie along the polar shelf earlier in the week.

This week (Thursday 24th - Friday 25th):

Southerly energy will ease throughout Thursday, fading from the 3ft range across south facing beaches. 

Conveniently, easterly energy whipped up by a very good looking trade fetch to the north of New Zealand which we have been monitoring in the past few forecast notes will continue to build across the open beaches.

This trade fetch has developed due to the interaction between a strong ridge to the west of New Zealand and a deepening trough to the northwest. During the week, the alignment of the main swell generating fetches have been well aligned for the NSW coasts, but have since swung more northeasterly as this trough and embedded low have deepened and are currently traversing the Tasman.

The resultant trade-swell generated by the easterly fetches earlier in the week are due to peak on Thursday afternoon with sets in the 3-4ft, holding at a similar size for the better half of Friday. Exposed beaches and swell magnets have the potential to pick up the odd bigger bomb set, potentially up to 5ft.

We are also due to see another pulse of southerly energy towards the end of the week, generated by a front and small embedded low which is moving to the south of Tasmania this morning. Southwesterly core fetches of up to 35-45kts have decent alignment as they move into the NSW swell window and should be working on an already active sea state.

The swell front off this system is due to fill in on Friday, providing sets in the 2-3ft range for south facing beaches by the afternoon.

Each morning will offer good conditions with early offshore breezes. The afternoons are likely to deteriorate as seabreezes develop however Friday looks to see the latest seabreeze preceding a southerly change which looks to move up the coast under the cover of darkness.

This weekend (Saturday 26th - Sunday 27th) and next week (Monday 28th onward):

A second frontal progression working deep in the southern ocean is much broader, slower and more elongated, but also located further west. We should see inconsistent sets breaking across south swell magnets off this system on Sunday in the 3-4ft range, backed up into the late afternoon/evening by a final strong southerly pulse generated by an intense system moving south of Tasmania on Friday.

With southwesterly core fetches of 50kts (perhaps stronger) moving into our swell window, there is the potential for 3-4ft+ sets breaking across south facing beaches in the afternoon, possibly stronger across the magnets.

Saturday morning looks to be under a southwesterly airflow, before breezes swing southeasterly in the afternoon, similarly on Sunday.

Monday is expected to see this southerly energy slowly fade form a similar  3-4ft+ range, however lets not forget the easterly trade-energy that will be breaking across the open beaches this whole time.

After peaking on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, we will see a slow easing trend, with sets fading from around 3ft on Saturday and 2-3ft on Sunday, more so on Monday.

Broader and less intense fetches will continue to migrate across the southern swell window maintaining energy for south swell magnets into next week, ebbing and pulsing between 2-3ft.