Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Wednesday 24th February)

Best Days: Protected southern corners on Friday, then each morning from Sunday onward.

Recap: 

Late Tuesday afternoon saw the surf kick to around the 3ft range, with the bigger sets nudging 4ft, although by that stage, the surf was lacking quality under a gusty north/northeasterly breeze. Today has held at a similar size, with a light northerly breeze turning north/northeasterly, almost a carbon copy as the day before.

This week (Thursday 25th - Friday 26th):

The outlook for swell hasn't changed too much since the last forecast, with east/northeasterly groundswell looking to ebb and pulse between 3ft and occasionally 4ft on Thursday.

The majority of this energy has been generated as a result of the southern flanks of Tropical Cyclone Winston and the adjacent feeder ridge which has been located to the south over the past week or so. Occasional pulses generated by slight intensifications of will lead to lulls and pulses as we’ve seen throughout the past couple of days, with more size due late in the week as the system drifts southwards.

Also in the mix on Thursday will be a shorter range northeasterly windswell generated by a gusty northeasterly local fetch which has been established since Tuesday. Open beaches should pick up around 3ft by the afternoon off this local fetch alone with the exception of the Northern Hunter due to the influence of the Hunter Bight swell shadow. Conversely, the South Coast should pick up the most energy as the fetch is strongest and best aligned to this part of the coastline.

The early morning is the best time to hit the water under a light north/northwesterly breeze, although make it quick as it is forecast to soon give way to a northeasterly seabreeze.

The aforementioned east/northeasterly groundswell is expected to build further on Friday as a result of the initial southward movement of Winston out from behind the swell shadow of New Caledonia earlier in the week. Open beaches should build to the 4-5ft range by the afternoon, with exposed swell magnets seeing some strong sets as periods increase.

A southerly breeze is due to be moving up the NSW coast by early Friday morning, likely passing Sydney in the early morning. For the most part, protected southern corners/points will be your best bet early, with winds swinging more south/southeasterly as the day wears on.

A second period pulse is due to fill in after dark on Friday, with Saturday now looking to see the peak in swell.

This weekend (Saturday 27th - Sunday 28th):

While the longest periods look to break across the open beaches on Friday evening, the majority of the size should build throughout Saturday with strong and powerful sets building to the 6-8ft range across the open beaches by the afternoon, with solid sets potentially reaching the 10ft range at exposed magnets and offshore reefs.

Swells of these size are not a common phenomenon around these parts, with the eastern swell windows usually just picking up sideband trade energy. However, this system is certainly an exception.

Models have been fairly consistent over the past few days suggesting that Winston should move in a westerly to west/southwesterly direction. The intense swell generating fetches on the southern and eastern quadrants of this system are likely to move in a captured motion, exacerbating the potential for swell production.

In an instance like this, the swell generating fetches move in the same direction as the swell it has already created, working on an active sea-state with compounding results.

Size and periods look to gradually fade throughout Sunday, but that’s not to say that the surf won’t still be large and powerful. Sets should fade from the 6ft+ range throughout the day, with the chance of some rogue sets still in the mix.

Frustratingly, a southeasterly breeze looks to be dominating the coast for the better part of Saturday, especially in the afternoon as the swell peaks. Sunday however has the potential to see an early window of light southwesterly breezes preceding a light/moderate southeasterly.

A second source of swell looks to build late on Sunday providing smaller options across the south facing beaches.

A strong and complex frontal progression is due to move south of Tasmania on Friday, with west/southwesterly trailing fetches of up to 35-45kts moving east and into our swell window during the night.

Despite the poor alignment, the strength and breadth of this fetch should still provide 3ft sets across the magnets by Sunday afternoon.

Next week (Monday 29th onward):

All swell sources are due to fade from early next week.

First off, residual energy off the back of Winston should ease from the 3-4ft range on Monday morning across the open beaches, while the accompanying southerly groundswell from the night before should also ease from the 2-3ft range across south swell magnets.

A weak southeasterly airflow spanning the Tasman as a ridge builds in the wake of Winston should maintain a small amount of swell, with options in the 2ft range in the days following.

Otherwise, the only other significant swell pulse looks to fill in across the exposed south swell magnets on Tuesday, generated by a long range polar front south of Victoria/South Australia late in the week.

Sets should break across south facing beaches in the 2-3ft range, although inconsistent and much smaller elsewhere.

Again, the early mornings hold the best chances of a clean wave under a light southwesterly breeze before a light/moderate southeasterly breeze sets in.