Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Monday 8th February)

Best Days:

Recap: 

What the early stages of the weekend lacked in quality, made up in size. Saturday saw large wind affected surf under a moderate/fresh south/southeasterly breeze. As the weekend wore on, the size dialled back but breezes also backed off, particularly in the morning when a southwesterly breeze allowed for clean peaks.

This morning was a similar story, with light southwesterly breezes allowing for slightly full options in the 3ft range.

This week (Tuesday 9th - Friday 12th):

Off the back of the weekend’s pulse generated by a central Tasman low, the surf is expected to continue fading slowly. 

Tuesday should wake to options in the 2ft+ range with the occasional larger sets before a subtle re-intensification of the Tasman low sends a modest southerly fetch along its western flank. 

Although this southerly fetch will be blowing virtually parallel to the coast and well offshore, a small amount of sideband energy is due to fill in, backed up by hints of energy from easterly fetches along the southern quadrants of this system.

Meanwhile, south facing beaches are also due to pick up underlying southerly groundswell on Tuesday, generated by a frontal progression moving south of Tasmania over the weekend. The effects should only be subtle, however the magnets have the potential to pick up sets in the 2ft range.

A moderate south/southwesterly breeze is on the cards for the early session which will favour open beaches, particularly the protected southern ends before increasing and swinging south/southeasterly from mid morning.

An increase in size into Wednesday is not overly likely, but this energy should act to maintain surf in the 2ft range throughout the day.

A second pulse of southerly groundswell is then due to break across the south swell magnets, this time with a longer swell period. Core fetches of 45-50kts are responsible for the 15 second period which could mean consistency is a bit of an issue fore runners arrive, improving thereafter as the bulk of the swell fills in.

Nevertheless, the magnets can expect occasional sets in the 2ft range.

Winds look to be lighter than the previous day, variable throughout the morning before giving way to a light seabreeze. 

The last remnants of a central Tasman low then look to be excluded to the north by a building ridge of high pressure which is due to send an elongated southeasterly fetch over central and northern parts of the Tasman, well into the QLD swell window.

Once again, the alignment of this fetch is less than ideal, but sideband energy off the southern extension of this fetch during its early stages should maintain easterly energy in the 2-3ft range throughout Thursday, fading throughout Friday.

The early session on Thursday and Friday are likely to continue seeing light/variable-offshore breezes preceding a northeasterly seabreeze. These seabreezes look to come in progressively stronger and earlier each morning, leading up to a weekend.

This weekend (Saturday 13th - Sunday 14th):

Late in the week, a lot of the swell windows will settle down with the exception of a gusty local northerly fetch which looks to increase along the coast ahead of a southerly change.

A short range windswell looks to increase into the afternoon, with junky peaks across the open beaches in the 1-2ft range. The local northerly breeze which is responsible for this slight increase will have an impact on the quality leading to bumpy, sloppy conditions.

Next week (Monday 15th onward):

More and more models are jumping on the band wagon regarding a potential tropical low/cyclone over the Coral Sea over the weekend, which looks to drift southward through the QLD and northern NSW swell windows. At this stage, the southward motion through the swell window is looking much more rapid in comparison to Victor and Ula, so any swell generated looks to be relatively brief.

Regardless, we have the potential to see in consistent options in the 3-4ft range late on Monday into Tuesday across the open beaches.