Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Wednesday 23rd December)

Best Days: Possibly Tuesday and Wednesday

Recap: 

A southerly breeze wasting the coast on Tuesday, limiting options to open beaches, particularly the southern corners. A mix of southerly windswell and left over northeasterly windswell were in the water, providing peaks in the 2ft+, occasionally 3ft range.

Today, breezes have eased and condition improved throughout the morning. The southerly swell was dominating, providing surfing he 2ft range with the odd 3ft set for the lucky ones. 

This week (Christmas Eve Thursday 24th - Christmas Day 25th):

Following this afternoon’s peak in southerly swell, energy should slowly taper off throughout Thursday and Friday with only weak and poorly aligned front’s generating hints of background southerly energy.

A much more dominant and reliable source of swell comes in the form of a Tasman Ridge which has been developing since the start of the week. An east/southeasterly airflow steered by this ridge is looking to sustain breezes of about 20-25kts throughout today and Thursday, before gradually adopting a more easterly alignment on Friday.

Open beaches are looking to see a slow but steady building trend of trade swell, building from the 2ft range on Thursday, to the 3ft range during Christmas Day.

The same ridge which is responsible for the swell bearing breezes will be sending a light/moderate onshore flow over all coasts for the end of the week. Thursday looks to start off from the east/southeast, swinging easterly, while Friday is looking at an easterly breeze swinging northeasterly by the afternoon.

Conditions won’t be ideal, likely soft and crumbly, but breezes don’t look overly strong so it should still be workable.

This weekend (Boxing Day Saturday 26th - Sunday 27th):

By the weekend, this easterly fetch steered by a ridge over the Tasman should have tended more northeasterly, whilst also becoming more localised throughout the late afternoon.

For the early risers on Boxing Day, open beaches should be offering plenty of options the 3ft range, the peak of this easterly swell event. The prevailing swell direction is expected to gain a touch of north late in the day, while easing slightly.

Unfortunately a gusty north/northeasterly breeze is looking to dominate all coasts throughout the day, lightest during the early morning. Hit it early. Winds, although unfavourable, will be at their lightest and the surf should be peaking so that’s looking like the best opportunity for a wave.

A southerly change is still on the cards for the overnight hours from Saturday into Sunday, likely the very early hours of Sunday morning. Gusty southerly breezes are due to whip up a sizey southerly windswell which is expected to build to the 3-4ft range at south facing beaches by the afternoon. 

Obviously, the quality at these locations is more than likely going to be severely lacking due to persistent fresh south/southeasterly breezes, so residual northeasterly windswell at protected southern corners of the open beaches still looks to be the pick of the bunch.

Next week (Monday 28th onward):

The start of the week ahead is looking exciting in the swell department. Following the change, a southeasterly fetch is looking to set up across the Tasman Sea, extending from the southern tip of NZ aligning nice to the NSW coast.

Monday is looking at options in the 3-4ft range across south facing beaches, larger across the Hunter.

A southerly flow will still be impacting the coast, however much lighter than the previous day and hopefully fairly workable (model disagreement).

Tuesday should continue to provide options in the 3-4ft range, possibly building a touch into the afternoon with a slight kick in period. Local breezes have the potential to be light/variable early, tending southeasterly in the afternoon. There is model disagreement regarding wind pattern, but Tuesday is definitely a day to keep your eye on.

Wednesday should see breezes lighten and the swell fade to the 3ft range by the afternoon, still a day of potentially great waves.

We will continue to monitor the outlook. Next notes due Christmas Day. Until then, happy holidays.