Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Monday 23rd November)

Best Days: Tuesday morning, Wednesday early and Thursday preceding a southerly change.

Recap: 

It wasn’t a great weekend. Saturday offered surf in the 2-3ft range, impacted by a fresh southerly breeze, slightly larger across the Hunter. Sunday was a slight improvement with a touch more size and a lighter east/southeasterly breeze.

This morning has easily been the highlight of the past few days.

There have been some great options along the coast today with a solid southerly groundswell moving up the coast. Most coasts have been offering sets in the 4ft range throughout the morning, building further this afternoon with bomb sets in the 6ft range at exposed south swell magnets. Unfortunately, breezes have swung southerly so protection is now needed. Still, there is some good long period energy getting into the protected spots.

This week (Tuesday 24th - Friday 27th):

An intensification embedded within a broad and elongated frontal progression which moved south of Tasmania on Sunday will maintain good southerly energy for Tuesday, although not quite as strong as today. Nevertheless, south facing beaches can expect the periods to hold in the 14-15 second range with sets in the 3-4ft range in the morning, fading gradually throughout the afternoon.

The southerly airflow which is impacting the coast this afternoon will also add a small amount of short range energy into the mix, peaking overnight. In the early hours of Tuesday, there should be around 1ft of insignificant southerly windswell in the water, fading rapidly and likely overshadowed by the more dominant groundswell.

Light south-west breezes are on the cards for Tuesday morning, becoming variable and swinging northeasterly throughout mid-morning. These northeasterly breezes are likely to increase in the afternoon, earliest and strongest over the Illawarra generating a small northeasterly swell of low quality for the open beaches.

Another strong front is looking to move across the Southern Ocean this evening. This long range system is likely to produce yet another pulse of southerly groundswell which is expected to fill in on Wednesday morning, building to the 3ft+ range at south facing beaches by the afternoon. 

The morning session looks good with winds forecast to be light northwesterly along the Sydney and Hunter coasts, more north/northwesterly along the Illawarra. Northeasterly breezes will soon increase limiting options to protected northern corners where the southerly swell will be most obvious.

Open beaches won’t miss out with a northeasterly local fetch increasing along the majority of the NSW coast throughout the day. By the afternoon, open beaches should be offering peaks in the 2-3ft range, although likely choppy and lacking order.

This northeasterly swell is likely to peak in the early hours of Thursday, particularly along the South Coast where open beaches could see peaks in the 4ft range. Further north, the impacts of this northeasterly swell will be less. 

A southerly change is due during the day on Thursday (still some model disagreement) but either way we are looking at a morning of northwesterly winds preceding the change.

Open beaches have the potential to pick up fun a-frames in the morning, while south facing beaches can make the most of Wednesday’s southerly groundswell fading from the 2-3ft range.

As the southerly change moves through, protected southern corners of open beaches will then be the pick.

Friday’s conditions look generally pretty ordinary with a sizey, but low quality southerly swell generated by the change on Thursday. South facing beaches should peak in the 3-4ft range, while open beaches can expect a fading northeasterly swell from the 1-2ft range. Local winds look to prevail from the south/southeast while easing so conditions won’t be all that great.

By this stage, you should be well and truly surfed out.

This weekend (Saturday 28th - Sunday 29th):

A lot of the significant swell generators dry up leading into the weekend as the long wave trough becomes less pronounced over eastern Australia. Frontal activity is likely to decrease with only small 2ft+ waves Saturday, fading Sunday.

There will however be a very small amount of east/northeasterly energy in the water from a depression over the Tropical South Pacific which is looking to deepen mid week. The effects from this system are only expected to be subtle over the weekend, in the 1-2ft range for Saturday, slightly larger on Sunday.

Next week (Monday 30th onward):

There is a fair amount of variability regrading the aforementioned depression, however there is the potential for a touch more size early next week from the east/northeast to around 2-3ft. More on this Wednesday.