Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issuedWednesday 18th November)

Best Days: Tuesday morning.

Recap: 

Tuesday morning offered a fun selection of E/SE swell with peaks in the 2ft range across much of the coast, nudging the 3ft range across the Hunter. Early offshore breezes allowed for clean a-frames, however conditions deteriorated in the afternoon as breezes swung northeasterly.

Today’s longer period southerly swell (14 seconds) obviously isn’t translating across the Sydney and Illawarra coasts with options really only in the 1-1.5ft range. However, Newcastle is highlighting this swell best with sets in the 2ft range. All in all, looks like this swell was over cooked and the small northeasterly energy was rivalling it in the size department.

This week (Thursday 19th - Friday 20th):

Today’s underwhelming surf is looking to fade into Thursday with very few indications of fresh significant swell. The fact that the swell came in so undersized today poses concerns for tomorrow’s swell. The Batemans Bay buoy is showing hints of energy, so we can’t rule out swell for tomorrow, however it’s likely to be undersized. The Sydney and Illawarra coasts are likely to be in the 1ft range, with the outside chance of 1-2ft if the swell decides to cooperate. Meanwhile, the Hunter can expect 2ft sets, fading throughout the day.

A weak southerly change is moving up the NSW coast this afternoon, due to reach Sydney just after dark however it’s impacts will be fairly minimal. A tiny amount of short range southerly swell will be in the water, generated by local southerly breezes this afternoon and evening. This swell alone will struggle to add even 1ft into the mix. Remaining beaches will also be offering small and weak options in the 1ft+ range as easterly swell energy fades. Breezes hugging the Mid-North Coast this afternoon will also add a tiny amount of northeasterly energy into the mix for tomorrow, but really only in the 1ft+ range.

Light/variable-westerly breezes are on the forecast for Thursday morning, remaining light throughout until mid morning. Breeze should tend light northerly before swinging northeasterly and increasing in the afternoon.

Friday isn’t looking much better, we were originally expecting fresh groundswell energy, however this has now been delayed. A small southerly groundswell will continue to ease to the 1-2ft range across the Hunter and a very small dribble for the Sydney and Illawarra stretch. When the surf gets down to this sort if size range, we try to pick up on any tiny hint of energy that we would otherwise gloss over, however open beaches should try to keep their eyes out for a very small northeasterly windswell generated by moderate northeasterly breezes on Thursday afternoon and evening. Size wise, it’s looking tiny, barley exceeding 1ft.

Much of the coast should be under a light/moderate south/southwesterly breeze in the morning after a night of moderate northeasterlies. Conditions are not expected to be perfectly clean, but workable throughout the morning as winds ease. Moving into the afternoon, a northeasterly seabreeze looks to develop, limiting options.

This weekend (Saturday 21st - Sunday 22nd):

Finally more energy is expected to move up the coast just in time for the weekend.

The most noteworthy energy will be as a result of a gusty southerly change which is likely to move up the coast in the overnight hours from Friday into Saturday. Exposed south facing beaches are likely to be in the 2-3ft range on Saturday morning, however the quality is likely to be lacking under a gusty southerly component breeze.

Due to the prevailing wind direction, open beaches are expected to offer the cleanest conditions, although a fair but smaller.

Sunday will continue to see 2ft to occasionally 3ft peaks breaking across south facing beaches, although fading steadily throughout the day.

Winds should improve from the day before, tending variable and likely light SW across the Sydney region, creating workable conditions for the morning surf.

Next week (Monday 23rd onward):

A much more solid swell is on the cards for early next week.

A strong frontal progression is shaping up to move over the Southern Ocean across the weekend steering a very broad area of west/southwesterly breezes south of Tasmania and across southern parts of the Tasman.

Monday is looking at building strongly throughout the day to the 3-5ft range at south facing beaches as this groundswell fills in, poissbly in the 4-6ft range for the Hunter. This swell is likely to stick around for the early stages of Tuesday morning, slowly fading throughout the day.

An intensification in core winds as a low develops on Sunday is likely to provide a second pulse due Tuesday mid-morning. This second swell front is likely to maintain surf in the 3ft range whilst also slowing the easing trend.

Winds look light/variable-northwesterly on Monday morning, tending east/northeasterly and increasing in the afternoon. The Illawarra has the potential to be under a southeasterly breeze in the afternoon as the swell builds, so more protected open beaches may be an option, relying on the 15 second periods for refracted energy.

At this stage, the Hunter and Sydney coasts look to be under a light/variable airflow in the morning, while the Illawarra continues under a southeasterly flow from the afternoon before. As the afternoon progresses, winds look to increase from the east/northeast.

In summary, it looks like the morning session will offer the best conditions, although potentially undersized on Monday.

All coasts look to fade further on Wednesday, however southerly energy should keep the surf in the 2ft range throughout the remainder of the week.