Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Wednesday 7th October)

Best Days: Sunday

Recap:

Conditions were pretty ordinary up and down the coast on Thursday with southeasterly breezes creating a choppy, uninviting ocean. The Hunter offered bumpy 3-4ft surf with no real quality to speak of, smaller along the Sydney and Illawara coasts.

Conditions weren’t much better today, with the swell dropping and onshore breezes continuing to blow. The morning session allowed for workable sets in the 3ft range across the Hunter and 2-3ft elsewhere, but the quality took a turn for the worse as a northeasterly breeze picked up this afternoon.

This weekend (Saturday 10th – Sunday 11th):

Generally speaking, the outlook doesn’t look overly interesting for New South Wales.

Saturday will see the surf fade to the 2ft range with gusty north/northeasterly winds limiting options to protected northern corners. South facing beaches like Bondi or along the Hunter will make the most of the northerly wind and remnant southerly swell combo.

We then have to look to the southern swell window for any fresh energy. We have a series of front passing over the southern Tasman, however they are poorly aligned, much like the pair of ‘dark horse’ systems which generated swell which came in above forecast last week.

A large and intense system is passing over the Southern Tasman as we speak and models suggest core winds of 60kts (stronger than Wendesday’s notes). In my opinion, this system is looking similar to last week’s that generated 3ft+ surf, however period models do not show the long periods pushing right into the coast.

Taking all these factors into consideration, I’d say expect south facing beaches to build into the 2ft+ (maybe 3ft) range on Sunday, possibly a touch bigger across the Hunter.

The morning session has the potential for winds to blwo from the north/northwest, however as the day progresses a fresh/strong north/northeasterly breeze will limit options to south facing beaches and protected northern ends.

Next week (Monday 12th onward):

Fresh/strong northerly breezes throughout the weekend will have added a a short range northeasterly wind swell into the mix for Monday. Size wise, I would probably only put a couple of feet on it, however combined with the remnants of the weekends south swell, peaky surf in the 2ft range is likely.

Again, due to the wind direction, hunt down those protected northern corners for the cleanest set up in the morning. A southerly change is due during the day, so a period of slack winds is in order in the late morning.

The remainder of the week will see a mixture of background southerly energy and short range small northeasterly winds swell keeping the surf in the 2ft range.

Find shelter from this southerly breeze throughout Tuesday at protected southern corners.

Northerly breezes will then become established in the following days, so those northern corners will be your friends.