Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 11th September)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: small, inconsistent south swells with early offshore winds. Tues: small combo of S'ly and NE swells with winds tending NW ahead of a late S'ly change. 

Recap: A large S’ly swell early Thursday (4-6ft sets south facing beaches) eased slowly throughout the day, and early offshore winds swung moderate S’ly during the day. We’ve seen wave heights level out at 2-3ft for much of today at south facing beaches (much smaller elsewhere) with clean conditions all morning ahead of an afternoon NE wind. 

This weekend (Sep 12 - 13)

Today’s south swell is expected to ease further into Saturday, but a new southerly swell is expected to push through during the morning, originating from a series of strong but poorly-aligned fronts in the Southern Ocean on Wednesday and Thursday. This energy should hold intermittently into Sunday morning. 

Unfortunately, our swell model still isn’t picking up these events very well (periods are fine, but Hsig is significantly under) but I still think we’ll see some small fun waves at south facing beaches. Very little surf is expected elsewhere so you’ll need to hunt down a swell magnet of you’re planning on getting wet. 

Wave heights should push up towards 2ft+ at south facing beaches during the day on Saturday, and the Hunter usually does a little better from these systems so slightly bigger waves are possible here. Wind wise, we’re looking at early nor'westers before fresh north-east winds kick in during the afternoon, so aim for the mornings. Sunday should pan out similar.

It’s worth pointing out that this southerly energy is not a high confidence event - especially on the timing - and any swell we do see over the weekend will probably be extremely inconsistent (and the numbers of waves in each set may not be high either). So don’t get your hopes up for anything amazing. 

Next week (Sep 14 onwards)

A deep but poorly aligned front/low combo will pass south of Tasmania tonight, and is expected to generate a fresh south swell for the start of next week. However despite the impressive (modelled) core wind speeds I’m really unimpressed by the storm track and its fast eastwards trajectory, so I’ve slightly downgraded the swell potential for Monday. 

I think most south facing beaches will be lucky to see inconsistent 1-2ft waves, with a chance for some bigger sets in the Hunter. In any case, freshening N’ly winds will probably ruin the surf at most exposed beaches anyway.

These freshening northerlies should generate a small NE windswell for early Tuesday (around 2ft, possibly even 2-3ft at NE facing beaches) and the good news is that winds are currently expected to veer to the NW as a cold front approaches from the west. We may also see some small long period S/SE swell originating from the back of the Southern Ocean low responsible for Monday’s (tiny) pulse. So, there’s currently a chance for a window of small clean peaky waves at exposed beaches on Tuesday. I’ll have more details on this in Monday’s update.

Winds are due to swing fresh southerly later Tuesday (earlier on the South Coast) as the front pushes up the coast, and a trailing southerly windswell is then on the cards for Wednesday - but no major size at this stage. Local winds currently look a little suss in the wake of Tuesday's late change, but there'll also be some small long period S/SE energy in the water too. So if the wind forecast improves over the coming days, we should have some small beachies to play with.

Beyond this, we have a few sources to keep a watch on for next week. Model guidance has the leftovers of the Tues/Wed S’ly change lingering in the Central Tasman Sea in an unstable troughy configuration that could result in a solid mid-range east swell later in the week, through next weekend.

A broader tropical system is also expected to develop SE of Fiji around Wednesday, and meander throughout the South Pacific for some time. Confidence is not yet high on its strength, position or track but this is certainly a possible source of long range E/NE swell later in the forecast period.

And lastly, a series of vigorous fronts through the Southern Ocean all have potential to supply small long period S’ly energy through the longer term period - nothing worth working around but probably enough to keep exposed beaches form becoming flat (in the absence of any other swell).

Have a great weekend, see you Monday.