Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 3rd July)

Best Days: Sat/Sun/Mon: strong but lully S'ly swells with good winds, Mon seeing the most size. Tues: easing S'ly swell with early offshores. Late Wed/Thurs: another (smaller) south swell but winds unsure at this stage.

Recap: Wednesday’s late S’ly swell still showed good form through Thursday morning but eased throughout the day. A much large but short range south swell has pushed up the coast this morning, with very solid sets reported at south facing beaches early on (easy 6ft+ sets at Bondi at dawn, as per the surfcam grab below). Wave heights are now trending down and the morning westerly flow has since gone southerly.

This weekend (July 4 - 5)

Still looking very good this weekend, thanks to a light offshore breeze both days under the influence of a broad high pressure system.

Surf wise, today’s southerly swell will continue to ease into Saturday morning but a new pulse of long range south swell is due mid-late morning, originating from a polar front tied in with the southerly change that delivered today’s large swell. This fetch was located much further away (just off the ice shelf, extending NE up into the southern Tasman Sea), so set waves will be smaller and less consistent but should retain plenty of quality.

In fact, we’ll see a couple of individual pulses of south swell throughout this time period, which will maintain (as I detailed on Wednesday) quite lully conditions at times. This makes it hard to pinpoint the overall trend throughout the weekend as it’ll be continually up and down - estimating the precise arrival time, duration and intensity of every pulse (including the overlap of each swell train) is quite difficult. 

That being said, south facing beaches will see the biggest waves all weekend, hovering between 3ft and occasionally 5ft. If anything, it appears that we’ll probably see a low point early Saturday morning before the next pulse kicks in, before holding through Saturday afternoon, then into Sunday with possibly a fraction less size. Expect smaller waves at beaches not completely open to the south.

However the Hunter region often performs much better under these south swell regimes so occasional 6ft sets are likely (probably later Saturday and early Sunday).

Also, the Far South Coast may see a very late pulse of slightly bigger south swell on Sunday afternoon, but it won’t reach the Sydney region until overnight. 

Next week (July 6 onwards)

Sunday’s late kick along the Far South Coast will originate from yet another front front/low combo tracking south of Tasmania on Saturday.

This is expected to generate another strong round of surf for Monday, generally in the 4-5ft range at most south facing beaches but the Hunter region could see anywhere north of 6ft to possibly even 8ft at times (if we’re lucky) due to its fantastic magnetic qualities under these kinds of south swells. Expect much smaller surf at beaches not open to the south. 

A weak ridge across the coast will maintain light offshore winds from the W/NW on Monday, and wave heights will trend down through Tuesday with freshening W’ly winds ahead of a late SW change. 

In the latest model runs, we’ve actually had a major swing away from Wednesday’s projections of a low developing in the Southern Tasman Sea and migrating to a position off the West Coast. Instead, another polar low/front contained within the same long wave pattern associated with Monday’s swell is expected to develop overnight Sunday, off the ice shelf, before tracking N/NE through out swell window.

This is expected to kick up a fresh S/SE swell for Wednesday afternoon or early Thursday, probably somewhere in the 3-4ft range at south facing beaches and occasional bigger bombs in the Hunter. 

However I feel that this swell will be a little flukier than Monday’s, and a lot less consistent too. Winds mid-week are a little unsure at this stage too with the models not quite agreeing on the coastal influence of a broad high pressure system in the Southern Tasman Sea. At this stage winds shouldn’t have too much strength but I’m not 100% on the direction. Early light offshores are quite possible though. 

Beyond this there are no significant swells on the horizon, so make the most of the weekend’s good south swell and also Monday’s strong energy. See you next week!