Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 10th April)

Best Days: Sat: good winds but steadily easing surf. Late Mon/Tues: Large S'ly tending SE swell with good winds likely in the mornings. Wed: easing surf with good winds early.

Recap: What a solid swell event! But also very complex. Despite wave heights peaking at the Sydney buoy early Thursday morning, surf size at the beach was considerably undersized through the morning, ahead of a mid-afternoon pulse that pushed to within height expectations (most open beaches reaching 5-6ft, and easy 8ft+ bombs at south facing beaches). What’s unusual is that there was no major deviation in buoy data at this time - a slight swing in the swell direction from the S to the S/SE but that’s about it (so, it’s fair to assume that there was too much south - possibly even slightly west of south - in the swell direction at first). Thursday afternoon’s size range held through into this morning with easy 8ft+ sets still visible at south facing beaches at dawn, but a noticeable easing trend has set in throughout the day. Again, wave heights were considerably smaller at locations not open to the south. Early offshore winds each morning have given way to fresh southerly winds each afternoon.

This weekend (Apr 11 - 12)

We're still looking good for Saturday although wave heights will continue a steady downwards trend as they have this afternoon. In fact by Sunday we’ll see very small surf so you’ll really want to make the most of Saturday morning’s size. 

South facing beaches should see early 3-4ft sets (bigger in the Hunter) on Saturday morning, and it’ll be smaller at beaches not completely open to the south. By the afternoon we’ll be back to 2-3ft surf, and into Sunday expect even smaller leftover waves. 

Conditions should be good each morning with light offshore winds, and although light to moderate sea breezes are expected in the afternoon it should’t deteriorate wave quality too much.

As a side note, we may still see a late pulse of small new S’ly swell across the South Coast on Sunday (inconsistent 2ft sets at south facing beaches) originating from a deep Southern Ocean Low traversing the waters south of the continent over the last few days, however it probably won't appear in Sydney until after dinnertime.

Next week (Apr 13 - 17)

We’ve still got a fantastic southerly groundswell for Monday afternoon but wave heights have been downgraded a little since Wednesday’s notes. The storm track looks like it’ll maintain a similar track as per previous model guidance but the strength and duration of the fetch (specifically, a secondary intensification near the SW tip of NZ’s South Island) has been downgraded a little.

So, Monday morning will start off small but the leading edge is due in mid-morning, and we’ll probably see a sharp increase in size by mid afternoon. South facing beaches should push towards 6-8ft+ right at the end of the day (i.e. last few hours before dark), and owing to the large, long period nature of the swell offshore bombies will be considerably bigger again. However, smaller surf will prevail at remaining beaches around 4-5ft; this is a little higher than normal due to the more eastern storm track allowing for a little more S/SE in the swell direction.     

Winds are looking good on Monday with a light to moderate southerly flow, probably with early W/SW winds across many areas, but veering S/SW then S/SE during the day. So it won’t be perfect for the late peak but the onshore flow shouldn’t be too strong.

Surf size will then trend steadily downwards from Tuesday morning - perhaps some 6-8ft sets early morning at exposed south facing beaches (bigger in the Hunter, and also at offshore bombies) but down to 5-6ft by mid-late morning and little smaller again into the afternoon. Again, early light offshore winds will maintain the best conditions in the morning with light to moderate SE sea breezes for the afternoon.

This swell will then continue a steady downwards trend from Wednesday onwards - albeit with early 4ft sets at south facing beaches. By Wednesday the synoptic wind will be around to the northern quadrant although only light in strength before lunch.

Beyond this there are no other signs of significant swell on the cards, so you’ll really have to capitalise on the early-mid week S/SE groundswell for your weekday surfing action. 

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!