Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 30th March)

Best Days: No great days due to generally poor winds and/or small swells. Sunday onwards though has a lot of potential with a low set to form off the coast.

Recap: The Sydney/Hunter/Illawarra coasts performed within expectations over the weekend, with a fun but otherwise nondescript south swell peaking Saturday morning, and easing slowly thereafter, with early light offshores and afternoon sea breezes. The South Coast however (Shoalhaven and further south) picked up much bigger sets that can only be traced back to this same source (the second of two fetches that developed in conjunction with a cut off low east of Bass Strait; the responsible fetch tracking up along Tasmania’s East Coast throughout Friday, and which had been weakened in the latest model runs up until Friday). What’s most unusual, is that these kinds of south swells usually favour most south facing beaches from Green Cape to Seal Rocks, yet the more reliable swell magnets north of the about Jervis Bay really didn’t see much size at all on Sunday - at the same time the South Coast was still a good 4ft (with bigger waves reported late Saturday). Unfortunately ASCAT passes didn’t quite cover this developing fetch on Friday so we can only utilise hindcast model data, and it doesn’t really illuminate the situation any more. So, there’s another curveball for the pool room.

This week (Mar 31 - Apr 3)

Not much to get excited about this week. The synoptic charts are devoid of any major activity right now, so we’re looking at mainly small swells until late Thursday. 

A series of fronts tracking through the Southern Ocean will generate small, long period south swell for the next few days, but only exposed south swell magnets will pick up any notable size. Late Tuesday should see a few stray 1-2ft sets on the South Coast with Wednesday seeing this energy through the Sydney region. However freshening E/NE winds throughout Tuesday (lighter at dawn) tending gusty NE on Wednesday (low chance for a period of early light winds) means that quality will be patchy away from those northern corners offering protection from this airstream.

The freshening nor’easters will also generate a small windswell through the middle of the week, but nothing off get excited about (1-2ft open NE facing beaches). The trades are also expected to strengthen for a period over the next few days so some low E/NE energy may make its way ashore mid-late week, but again I’d be surprised to see much more than 1-2ft from this source. 

A gusty southerly change will push across the South Coast late Thursday afternoon, before reaching Sydney early Friday morning and this will dictate surf/wind and weather for Easter Friday. Local winds are expected to veer more SE during the day, and we’ll see a short range SE swell in the 3-4ft range fill into south facing beaches but quality will be very ordinary under this airstream. At this stage, it's not worth your time or effort.

This weekend (Apr 4 - 5)

The Easter weekend’s looking pretty good for swell potential, but local winds continue to present some problems within the long term outlook. 

A cut-off low is expected to form east of Tasmania on Thursday (associated with the southerly change), and it looks like being a good swell producer for southern NSW with south facing beaches likely to pick up between 4ft and maybe 6ft of S’ly tending S/SE swell on Saturday (much smaller at beaches not open to the south). However, a lingering trough over the region will probably maintain fresh and gusty SE winds, and a peaky 3ft short range windswell.

Note: this outlook is likely to shift around over the coming days so let’s leave it until Wednesday until finalising your holiday plans.

What’s really interesting is that there is very good agreement between the models that the local surface trough will evolve into a cut-off low through Sunday - possibly an East Coast Low (or more likely a Tasman Low) - which ratchets up the swell potential for the back half of the Easter period.

Of course, we need some flexibility in and around this outlook but right now I think both Sunday and possibly Monday could be looking at a significant swell event with a lot of rain and wind at some point. How big? Too early to tell right now but under the regional synoptic blocking pattern such a system would remain slow moving near the coast so it could end up being quite sizeable. Let’s give it a few more days and see how the models establish this swell event.

Next week (Apr 6 onwards)

This potential Tasman Low looks like it’ll occupy the region for a few days and should subsequently influence our surf through the first couple of days of next week. At this stage it looks like we’ll see both a NE swell (originating from a strong NE infeed from the trades), plus a sizeable E/SE tending SE swell from the primary fetch around the low itself. However we’ll really need the low to push away from the coast so that local winds become favourable. 

In any case, I’d quietly pencil out Tuesday and Wednesday from your diary and consider extending your Easter break to capitalise on what could end up being a very tidy Autumn groundswell for the East Coast. More on this in Wednesday’s update.