Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 23rd March)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri: small E/NE swell with offshore winds. 

Recap: Onshore all weekend with poor surf at most locations. Cleaner this morning with early light offshore winds but not much size or energy on offer. 

This week (Mar 24 - 27)

It’s not a great week for surfers in southern NSW.

The Tasman Sea will remain relatively inactive all week, as far as major swell production is concerned. A cold front will drive across the region on Tuesday, bringing gusty southerly winds from about mid-morning onwards (earlier south of Sydney) but with no major swell in the water there’s nothing to look forward to. 

This afternoon’s nor’easter will freshen overnight and may whip up a small local windswell for the early session but with North Head only 10kts (gusting 15kts) we’ll need this to double within the next six hours - and hold that strength for another ten more - in order to see anything worthy of an early surf. I’m doubtful it'll occur.

However, we should see slow 1-2ft+ waves at a handful of NE swell magnets through the morning but most beaches will probably remain very small and lacklustre. 

A small southerly windswell is possible throughout the afternoon, but the models are split on how this change will develop within our swell window (one has a thin but gusty fetch just off the coast; the other doesn’t maintain much strength at all). So for now it’s not worth considering as a notable swell source either.

Wednesday will see a broader S’ly tending S/SE flow establish itself across the region as the responsible low (attached to the front) moves eastwards into the Tasman Sea. South facing beaches may pick up 2ft+ of low quality short range S/SE swell but again - it’s not really worth working around. Fortunately, winds will rapidly abate and possibly tend variable late in the day so there may be some options throughout the afternoon. But it’s not worth an early minute from work. Keep an eye out for a brief window of early SW winds at dawn at a few select locations (probably just the Northern Beaches). 

Overnight on Wednesday, the leading edge of a small E/NE swell is expected to push through, generated by TC Reuben yesterday and today, way out south-east of Fiji. This system ended up consolidating a little better than Friday’s model runs indicated, however it was (and still is) aimed more towards SE Qld, and the large travel distance will erode a significant percentage of size across the southern NSW coast.

Still, we’re looking at a slowly building trend on Thursday with the biggest waves in the afternoon, perhaps some very inconsistent 2ft+ sets at swell magnets but there will be lengthy breaks between ‘em. Conditions look pretty good on Thursday too with freshening W/NW winds tending W/SW during the day as a new cut off low approaches Tasmania. 

This swell will probably hang in on Friday but perhaps ease back a touch (so, still some 2ft sets at swell magnets but with even longer breaks).Freshening W/SW tending SW winds are expected in the morning as a front clips the SE corner of the country, but no increase in southerly swell is expected until Saturday. So, it appears that we’ll have small clean and very inconsistent beachies to finish off the working week. 

This weekend (Mar 28 - 29)

The models haven’t quite ramped up their intensity on this Tasman Low like I suspected they would (in Friday’s notes).

We’re still looking at a reasonable system developing east of Tasmania but at this stage surf size will probably be limited to 3ft to perhaps 4ft at south swell magnets on Saturday, with very small waves elsewhere. Additionally, fresh southerly winds will envelop the coast as another front spins off the low, so conditions will probably be bumpy at those locations picking up the size.

Sunday looks much better on the surface with light variable winds and sea breezes, but surf size is expected to steadily throttle back. South facing beaches may have a few stray 3ft sets early morning; that’ll probably be the best of it. Expect smaller waves throughout the day. I’ll review this in more detail on Wednesday.

Next week (Mar 30 onwards)

Nothing of interest past the weekend at this stage. A steady procession of strong fronts through the Southern Ocean will maintain very small, long period energy at exposed beaches, but the Tasman Sea looks like it’ll be quiet (other than the weekend’s low) and the Tropics also show no major signs of development within our reliable swell windows. Let’s see whether Wednesday’s update has more promise for both the weekend’s south swell and next week’s surf potential.