Fun beach breaks ahead this week
Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 23rd February)
Best Days: Good waves are expected pretty much every day (Tue AM, Wed AM, Fri AM ths pick). Thurs probably the low point (size wise) of the week however most days should offer favourable winds at some point.
Recap: Pulsey E/NE swell that eased a little later Saturday (3-5ft early) and into Sunday morning, before building again during the afternoon. Another temporary easing trend this morning with this afternoon showing some bigger waves with the tide (4ft). Winds have been onshore but mainly light to moderate in strength, occasionally variable at times.
This week (Feb 24 - 27)
With ex-TC Marcia now weakening off the SE Qld coast, it feels like we can finally kick off the week with a recalibration of the forecast models.
Fortunately, there’s still a 15-25kts E/NE fetch associated with ex-TC Marcia positioned in our mid-range NE swell window, which will provide some fun swell for Tuesday (3ft open beaches, maybe a few bigger bombs at NE swell magnets) and early Wednesday (2-3ft, easing). Expect smaller waves at south facing beaches.
Tuesday’s winds are looking good for the morning - generally light and variable, however a gusty southerly change is expected mid-afternoon. Southern corners should continue to provide good waves even once the change pushes through, as it’ll also pick up the E/NE swell nicely.
This E/NE fetch will steer outside our swell window on Tuesday so the associated swell source will dry up for the rest of the week.
However a long, thin S/SE tending SE fetch trailing Tuesday’s southerly change should generate a fun SE swell for Wednesday in the 2-3ft range at south facing beaches. Tie this in with a light variable morning wind (thanks to Tuesday’s front weakening quickly overnight) and the secondary E/NE swell, and we should see some fun A-frames at open beaches for the Wednesday morning session.
Thursday is then expected to be the low point of the week with easing E/NE and SE swells in the 2ft+ range at open beaches. Winds should be light and variable all day under a weak synoptic pattern.
Friday looks like we’ll finish the week with some fun waves, thanks to a new pulse of long range E/NE swell, generated by an impressive trough that developed well NE of New Zealand over the weekend. Core wind strengths were reasonably impressive however the system wasn’t positioned perfectly within our swell window and it’s slowly snuck inside the swell shadow of New Zealand too, which will shave back the size potential.
As such, we’re looking at a very inconsistent swell event on Friday - but NE swell magnets should pull in occasional 3ft sets at times. With a lack of other notable swells in the water, there could be long breaks between sets. However early indications are that conditions will be nice and clean with light winds and afternoon NE sea breezes. I’ll fine tune the details on this in Wednesday’s notes.
This weekend (Feb 28 - Mar 1)
Friday’s long range E/NE groundswell is expected to ease slowly through the weekend, and at this stage there are no other significant sources of swell on the charts.
We should see early 2-3ft sets at NE facing beaches on Saturday (smaller at south facing beaches) but it’ll trend towards during the day and into Sunday.
Locally freshening NE winds from Saturday afternoon onwards should whip up a small NE windswell for exposed beaches on Sunday but if it happens, conditions will probably be a little second hand thanks to the accompanying nor'easters. So at this stage your weekend priorities should be aligned around a Saturday morning session.
Next week (Mar 2 onwards)
Looking really good at this stage.
The trades north of New Zealand are expected to fire up later this week and through the weekend (and beyond), generating a good E/NE swell that should start to appear around Monday and build strongly through the middle of next week, possibly holding through to the weekend. Current indications are for a fun 3-4ft from this source but there’s a chance we could see an upgrade (some of the models have the fetch retrograding to the coast, which could deliver a similar pattern as what we’ve seen over the last four or five days).
Otherwise, there are a couple of flukey sources of south swell due early to mid next week (associated with a developing trough off the South Coast) but we’ll need a few more days to assess their potential.
Comments
All good but no real swell again I think may be a good idea to give the 2nd week prediction a miss they never are accurate its just to far out for anybody to predict just
so many variables on the east coast plus NZ stuffing things up. This is not a criticism
just some sensible advice. We all appreciate the reports.
dont fucken offer up any part of our free forecast. its not sensible advice i have another name for it. thanks ben keep up the good work.
Easiest option is just not to read the notes for next week!
However it's useful for overall trend forecasts, which in this case I'm fairly certain will come off (just the size that'll be nudged up or down).
Keep up the 2nd week predictions Ben, I like the optimism! Even though it's hard to predict gives us all a little something to look forward to
Been an amazing run of swell looking great for 7 - 10 days out but then not eventuating.
Not Ben's fault, he's calling them as he sees them, but there has been an unbelievable run of 7 to 10 day forecasts looking great but not eventuating.
I surfed late Sunday, waves were struggling into the 2-3' range at Maroubra, which should get all of the east and nor east swell.
So it's been a great run of swell in some respects and shitfully disappointing in another respect.
Mind you, I'd kill for something remotely offshore! Roll on Autumn.
Mind you, swell up north has been pretty consistent, not sure how they have gone with the local winds generally, but there has certainly been some good swell running up there.
Fun beach breaks if you're North of Jervis Bay, otherwise this n/e swell has been dire on the sth coast. Jervis to Durras (at least) has basically been tiny for the duration of this swell. Really thought a little bit of it would swing in but it just hasn't been the case.
Well, technically this forecast is for "Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Coasts". And most trade swells will usually be slightly smaller the further south you go. Hwoever I would have thought your stretch would have picked up some good waves in recent days.
Interestingly, we had a similar swell a month or so back, where it was widely reported that the Coal Coast came in significantly under all other coasts (including your neck of the woods). However the last week or so has been really good on the Coal Coast, as well as the usual Sydney haunts.
was at bendalong last week, the waves were great
The dreaded Jervis swell shadow. Charts seemed to suggest enough radial spread and refraction to warrant a bit of swell. Hasn't been the case with this swell.
Always a little disheartning on the drive back to see the usual swell magnets at 4ft plus north of Jervis when you've been scratching around in weak dribble.
Had the exact same situation over the weekend. South of Jervis was tiny, whereas Coal coast etc had plenty on offer on the drive back..
maybe we can start placing bets on conditions past 3-4 days and 2nd week swells?
me, i'll always bet on flat (of course i'll keep one eye on the cams).
I read your forecasts Ben thanks mate. Jervis Bay yeah it has been very small but it looks good tomorrow in the morning around NE swell magnets and with the S change could look interesting for a little while after lunch in protected S corners. Cheers
And you make useless comments on his forecasts too
BD, I checked a south facing beach south of Jervis on Saturday and besides the high tide there were still very full 3ft sets breaking on an outer bank from the east swell..
Appreciate the pic Craig. That spot is a swell magnet and we all know it's one of the only places in that neck of the woods that will, due to local bathymetry, suck in swell like there's no tomorrow, especially from the south to east. It was pretty crappola on saturday, with about 30+ guys on it in the morning. 3ft, mmmm.... long bow.
Please don't think i was having a crack at swellnet or any of your well informed and articulate forecasts, far from it. You guys do an epic job. I think my comments stand though, the n/e trade swell that has been generating so many smiles for the last couple of weeks just hasn't had an impact down the coast. It's been pretty feeble. The bouys have reflected the swell dissipation south of Sydney, even though the charts were suggesting somewhat more. It rolls that way sometimes.
It also raises something else i'm quite curious about: differences in the feel of a swell when all parameters are the same. When everything is equal (fetch length, angle of swell direction, period, local winds, no other swells) why do swells with exactly the same parameters often behave and feel so different. Some can be epic and others lack-lustre. Taking banks and other local conditions out of the equation, i find it weird that some swells work and others don't. With all other things being equal, why do swell signatures behave so differently?
Yeah I get where you're coming from, and I only rocked up for a quick check and saw this one set before seeing how full it was and heading back north.
And to answer your other question.. even though the swell may arrive at your beach with the same signature as a previous swell, ie same period, size and direction, no storm or fetch or weather setup is ever identical and here in lies the answer.
For example you could get the same swell signature from two similar but different fetches, ie one could of been wider and more expansive than the other, or even extend over a much longer distance, but still produce an near identical swell signature at your beach. But these two swells would have a different consistency and feel to them as you've said.
Well it dose get a bit monotonous IMHO listening to forecasts of 10' surf and similar yet we end up with 3' waves instead when other models were downgrading this event from an early time. The last time a forecast actually over delivered was the last southerly swell event which had a double peak on size on both days, the Friday and the Saturday (where I am anyway).
I would prefer it if the forecasters could maybe concentrate on under promising and over delivering rather than the other way round where they seem to get caught up in best case scenarios which rarely seem to actually happen.
Go frothers, lol!
Always pays to keep an eye on the report, and an eye on the charts for yourself as well! Some charts currently showing a potential S swell for later next week too, for example, not mentioned or forecast though.
Yes the Swellnet forecast is always much appreciated as free and interesting reading (unlike other, more 'commercial' sites, for example).
Yes keep the second week, please, even as a ray of hope!
Keep it up Swellnet, I love the site, the reports, clips, it's great. Forecasts are just that, despite almost a century of historical data driving our modelling systems we are still at the mercy of nature. After a misspent youth In the gamefishing scene and having known a number of commercial fisherman, personal experience and first hand stories remind me that forecasts are what's expected to happen, on occasion it doesn't hold.
Plenty of waves over the last 7-10 days accross Wollongong and Nrth Suburbs all out of the E to NE direction. Besides the downgrade of ex-TC Marcia this ongoing supply and undercurrent of useful trade swell was called on multiple occasions well prior to the events by Ben and the team.
Oh yeah... Almost forgot...the joint Typhoon Warning Centre initially called the tropical low that was to become TC Marcia has having 'potential' to become Cat1. 4.5 days later the Central Qld Coast was bracing for a potential Cat5 system making landfall. Spare a thought for a moment before you start ripping on Swellnet forecasters 'cause your 10ft+ swell didn't arrive.
Love your work Ben, keep it coming!
Although the 10ft swell didn't come through the gents at swellnet are doing an awesome job, it's not all that easy predicting swells from that direction when the slightest change in any of the variables can change everything, there was still decent waves around if you knew where to look I hung out at Cape solander and it had its moments of 5ft sets a little North but a hand full of the local guys strung together some nice toobs!!! Cheers ben kepp up the good work
Thanks fellas - appreciate the kudos.
I could just copy and paste what PointAddict wrote.
Learn to read charts, read swellnet (best website, ever!), reconcile with local obs, repeat.
Love the long range predictions! Although the swell might not come to fruition it gives good perspective of whats happening in the ocean and how the various systems influence one another. It obviously also shows how difficult it can be for the forecasters to nail it. Keep up the good work!