Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 18th February)

Best Days: Entire period: plenty of solid E/NE tending E'ly then E/SE swell - getting large Sat/Sun. Winds looking favourable for the weekend at this stage too.

Recap: Residual E/NE swell with light winds freshening from the NE both days. 

This week (Feb 19 - 20)

’Tis very hard not to get excited with the way the weather charts are evolving. 

We’ve got some big swell due for the weekend but prior to then a reasonably strong increase will occur from developments in the trade belt north of New Zealand earlier this week. 

The only problem we’ve got for the next few days is the threat of NE winds. Model guidance pegs it around 15-20kts on Thursday (although lighter earlier morning) however we may see a weakening of this flow through Friday as a more significant low tracks southwards from the Coral Sea, disrupting the ridge across the southern NSW coastal margin.

Nevertheless, NE winds are still quite likely through the day so aim for an early surf for the best conditions.

As for wave heights, this trade swell - plus a mix of locally generated short range NE swell - should provide 3-5ft surf across open NE facing beaches both days (smaller at south facing beaches). We may even see a few sneaky bigger sets at reliable swell magnets, particularly on Friday. 

And, depending on the speed of the southward-tracking Coral Sea low, there is also a chance that very late Friday may herald some even bigger bombs - if the projected large weekend swell arrives ahead of current expectations. We won’t really know this until late Thursday so I’ll update my thoughts in the comments below, if this is a potential factor worth considering for your Friday planning.

This weekend (Feb 21 - 22)

There is still somewhat of a disagreement between the models as to how, when and where this Coral Sea low will track. But now that we’re just a couple of days ahead of it reaching maturity off the SE Qld coast, decisions have to be made. Fences can no longer be sat upon (not that I like to sit on 'em anyway).

Right now current thinking is that we’ll see the Coral Sea low track southwards parallel to the Northern NSW coast on Friday, before pushing out into the central Tasman Sea on Saturday. What this means surf wise is that we’ll see a building swell all weekend with the swell direction slowly backing from the E/NE to the E, and then E/SE (and then maybe even SE by Monday).

Wave heights will build progressive through Saturday; right now I think 6-8ft+ sets are very likely through the afternoon. At this stage we’re looking at a peak in the 8-10ft range on Sunday afternoon, straight out of the east tending east south-east. With this swell direction there’ll be a relatively even spread of size across most locations so protected corners will probably be the only viable option for many surfers. 

Local winds are also looking very good on the balance. As the low slips south toward Sydney latitudes, we’ll see the pressure gradient slacken off before winds swing light to moderate southerly. If wind speeds remain light they’ll be a good chance for an early outflow from the W/SW (probably just Sunday morning). 

Now, it’s worth pointing out that this surf outlook is at the optimistic end of the spectrum. However based on the model trends over the last few days confidence is increasing that we’ll see a scenario of this nature unfold. I’ll pin down the specifics in more detail on Friday. 

Next week (Feb 23 onwards)  

Our swell potential for early next week hinges around the future movements of this (by then, Tasman) low. If we follow the favoured model guidance for the weekend, this would involve the low meandering about the Tasman Sea for a couple of days, providing varying degrees of somewhat strong SE swell. However it’s too early to get overly confident on this so we’ll reassess in more detail on Friday.