Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 24th October)

Best Days: Fun NE swell on Saturday with an early period of offshore winds. Good S'ly swell Tues/Wed/Thurs with generally favourable winds in the mornings. 

Recap: Small peaky mix of swells to 2ft+ on Thursday with early light N’ly winds tending E/NE during the day. Size eased a little overnight and conditions were glassy at dawn this morning, but freshening NE winds are now creating bumpy conditions. 

This weekend (Oct 25-26)

Saturday morning’s looking really good for surf. The NE fetch developing off the central/southern NSW coast this afternoon is expected to strengthen considerably overnight, and should whip up peaky NE swell between 3ft and occasionally 4ft at NE facing beaches for the early session - yes, a slight upgrade from Wednesday’s notes. 

South facing beaches (i.e. Bondi, Cronulla) will however be much smaller, as will the northern Hunter region which doesn’t enjoy these kinds of short period NE swells.

A southerly change is expected to push into the Sydney region mid-late morning (probably reaching Cronulla by 8-9am, and Newcastle by 11am-12pm) and ahead of it winds should briefly freshen from the west. This should help to clean up surface conditions quite a lot and it’ll be the best time to surf as gusty southerlies will then dominate the coast for the rest of the day.

The morning’s NE swell will slowly fade in size after lunch, but southern corners should still have good options throughout the afternoon. South facing beaches should also see a small increase in poor quality windswell in the wake of the change.

On Sunday we’ll see a smaller combination of short range S/SE swell and leftover NE windswell. Exposed beaches may pick up a couple of stray 2ft+ sets but I don’t think it’ll be too exciting; persistent southerly winds are expected through the morning, albeit lighter in strength than Saturday afternoon. There’s a chance for a brief period of SW winds but this will mainly be confined to the Northern Beaches, so keep your expectations low. Smaller surf is then likely through the afternoon.

Next week (Oct 27-31)

We’ve got lots of south swell on tap for next week.

To begin with, Monday will probably see a small mix of residual swells with early light winds tending NE and freshening, ahead of a gusty southerly change due into the coast throughout the afternoon. The timing on the change isn’t clear as yet, because most model guidance has it racing extraordinarily quickly through the southern Tasman Sea  - but I’m doubtful that it’ll arrive in time to be of any benefit in a swell generating capacity (except for perhaps the South Coast).

Tuesday looks pretty fun as we’ll see a reasonable south swell filter in behind Monday’s change, mainly originating from a band of W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait.

However, a rapidly developing high in the central/southern Tasman Sea at the same time will create a period of light morning winds, before afternoon nor’easters envelop the coast.

Size wise, I think it’s reasonably to expect clean 2-3ft waves at south facing beaches in Sydney early Tuesday morning, building to 3-4ft throughout the day - and with bigger surf in the Hunter reaching 4-5ft by the afternoon (but with smaller waves at beaches not open to the south). Let’s take a closer look at this on Monday.

From Wednesday onwards, the southern Tasman will fall under the influence of a vigorous frontal passage as a Long Wave Trough tracks across the south-eastern corner of the continent. This will drive a sustained period of SW gales across the Tasman region, and consequently we’ll see a couple of strong south swells push up along the southern NSW coast.

The first is due in through Wednesday (probably 3ft+ south facing beaches by lunchtime), with a second, slightly stronger swell due Thursday (say, 3-4ft+ south facing beaches). Conditions are looking good at this stage with early offshores and moderate to fresh NE sea breezes in the afternoon. Size should then ease slowly through Friday.

The Hunter really enjoys these south swells, and could see another foot or two on top of these figures. However, as per usual, beaches not open to the south - in all areas - will be much smaller.

The only point of concern is the strong westerly component in the storm track, which could result in a minor size downgrade on Monday. If nothing else, it'll certainly contribute to a rather inconsistent period of swell activity, but I'm pretty confident we'll see some decent waves at south facing beaches regardless.

Long term (Nov 1 onwards)

Currently long range models suggest our southern swell window will remain the dominant region into next weekend and beyond, which should lead to a continual supply of south swell through into the following week.