Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 29th September)

Best Days: Thursday: fun easing south swell with early offshore winds. Friday: building S'ly swell, large late a'noon. Saturday: large, easing S'ly swell with NW tending NE winds. Sunday: moderate, easing S'ly swell with NW tending NE winds.

Recap: There were a few small waves around the traps early Saturday before moderate to fresh southerly winds kicked in mid-morning. Set waves managed 2-3ft across most south facing beaches for the early session, falling away to about 2ft on Sunday as early light winds gave way to a freshening northerly breeze. These winds whipped up a small NE windswell for the late afternoon that persisted through into this morning, although very small in size (just a foot or two at exposed beaches, and very weak, and hardly anything in the Hunter). Winds have been out of the north all day. 

This week (Sep 30 - Oct 3)

On Friday I outright dismissed a small E/SE swell that had been projected for Tuesday, from a fetch that was expected to develop in the eastern Tasman Sea on Sunday. Although the models had indeed downgraded the low expected to generate the new energy, it seems my write-off may have been a little premature. 

The small low that formed in the central Tasman on Friday tracked east towards New Zealand over the weekend as modelled, however a minor SE fetch did eventually develop west of Cook Strait (the body of water separating the North and South Islands) on Sunday. Although I’m still confident we won’t see anything great from this source, we should see small infrequent waves arriving through Tuesday afternoon and (more likely) Wednesday morning. Don’t expect much more than 1-2ft at open beaches, and be prepared for very long breaks between waves.

Otherwise, anticipate tiny residual NE wind waves across exposed beaches throughout Tuesday (with an accompanying northerly wind). Wednesday morning should see a little more schtick in the NE windswell on (thanks to Tuesday afternoon’s strengthening nor'easter) however surf size is still not expected to be very large - perhaps 1-2ft+ at exposed NE facing beaches, which will hopefully tie in nicely with the small long range E/SE swell.

But Wednesday’s curveball comes in the form of a gusty SW tending S’ly change due very early in the morning - probably before dawn on the South Coast, but into the Sydney region within an hour or so of dawn.

Winds will veer more southerly from about lunchtime onwards, and should kick up a strong punchy southerly swell for exposed south facing beaches by the end of the day (between 3ft and possibly 5ft). However the initial low period and acute S/SW swell direction will limit size at protected locations.

Therefore your Wednesday options will be a small NE swell with fresh offshores early morning or a sizey but bumpy S’ly swell late afternoon.

Thursday looks fun with a slowly easing south swell and mainly offshore winds as Wednesday’s front retreats into the Tasman Sea. South facing beaches will be biggest at dawn (3-4ft+ sets, easing) however again it’ll be much smaller at beaches not open to the south. We may even see a sea breeze in the afternoon so get in early for the best conditions.

Friday is where the juice really starts to line up. By now you’ve probably read the article about the impending swell for Fiji ("Cloudbreak forecast to come out of the sky") - well, the same swell is going to hit Sydney a few days prior and we’re looking at an excellent, large long period south swell to finish the working week and kick start the weekend. 

This south swell will be generated by an intense polar low tracking below the continent mid-week, which is expected to be steered up and into the Tasman Sea along a favourable N/NE route - right inside NSW’s prime south swell window. There are two features of this (forecast) system that are quite incredible right now: the strength of the surface winds - upwards of 50kts - and the sheer breadth of the fetch - spanning the entire southern Tasman Sea. 

Initially there’ll be two swells in the mix - a short range south swell emanating from the top of the fetch (periods in the 10-11 second range), but the real power will originate from the core of the low and should generate peak swell periods of 18-20 seconds - not a common occurrence along the East Coast at all.

Surf size will be largest at south facing beaches, where we should see a steady upwards trend into the 6-8ft range by the end of the day (much smaller earlier tho'). Bigger waves are also possible at offshore swell magnets and up in the Hunter (10ft?). However beaches not open to the south will be smaller (late a’noon peak around 4-5ft) with smaller surf again inside protected southern corners (2-3ft).

Wind wise, it’s looking pretty good at this stage - a shallow southerly change is modelled to move along the southern NSW coast but at this stage I’m more inclined to think we’ll see light variable winds ands possibly an afternoon NE sea breeze. Let’s reassess the numbers on Wednesday. 

This weekend (Oct 4-5)

Saturday looks to be a doozy at this stage. A large, easing long period south swell with light NW winds tending NE and freshening - perfect for a host of south facing beaches that enjoy these particulars. Early sets are likely to be in the 6-8ft range at the swell magnets (maybe bigger at offshore reefs and a handful of spots in the Hunter, near 8-10ft) however a steady easing trend is expected throughout the day. As per usual, beaches not open to the south will be much smaller.

Sunday’s shaping up to see the same trend (NW tending NE winds, easing size), albeit a couple of feet smaller. All in all a really good weekend for south facing beaches that like northerly winds. 

Long term (Oct 6 onwards)

Nothing major on the charts at this stage, due to the Fri/Sat south swell occupying the focus of the latest model run. However I’ll have a closer look at the long term trend for next week on Wednesday.