Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 22nd September)

Best Days: Tues AM: get in early before it all disappears! Thurs AM: small peaky NE windswell.

Recap: Plenty of south swell over the last three days, with three distinct pulses of swell generally holding 3-5ft at south facing beaches across the entire period (although Sunday’s energy pushed higher than this at times). The Hunter saw bigger waves too. Early mornings were clean for a brief period before light to moderate southerlies set in for the rest of the day (today’s winds have gone SE and then E’ly). All in all a really good spell of waves with fun options in many areas. 

This week (Sep 23-26)

Nothing major expected this week. The current S/SE swell will ease steadily from Tuesday onwards (early 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches, but fading fast), and early light winds will swing NE during the days so you’ll need to capitalise on the early session. In fact by Wednesday there won’t be much energy leftover out of the south-east quadrant at all, so make the most of what’s on offer Tuesday.

Freshening NE winds on Wednesday will whip up a low quality windswell for open NE facing beaches throughout the day and into Thursday, however no great size or strength is expected and conditions will be below average on Wednesday due to the accompanying synoptic wind. 

A light NW wind change on Thursday morning (ahead of a late afternoon or early evening S’ly change) will improve conditions but at this stage we’re not looking at anything worth a day off work. Exposed beaches may reach somewhere between 2ft and possibly 3ft if we’re lucky (much smaller at south facing beaches, and in the Northern Hunter) with possibly the odd bigger set at swell magnets south of Wollongong, but overall keep your expectations low.

It's also worth pointing out a small long period south swell that's due later Wednesday and into Thursday, generated by an intense polar low that tracked below the continent yesterday (displaying core wind speeds of 50kts). The low's poor alignment within our swell window and the enormous travel distance will limit size from this source, however exposed south facing beaches may pick up a very occasional 1-2ft wave from time to time, perhaps even the odd bigger bomb in the Hunter.

A small S’ly windswell is then expected to finish off the working week. Again, no great size is expected however south facing beaches between Sydney and the Hunter may pick up occasional low quality 2-3ft sets if we’re lucky. Winds are expected to be from the south during this time, so conditions won't be great. But there'll be a few little waves around.

This weekend (Sep 27-28)

No major swells on the radar for the weekend. A small front slipping into the southern Tasman Sea on Friday will generate some small sideband southerly energy for late Saturday and (more likely) Sunday, but only at south facing beaches - and we’ll be lucky to see much more than a couple of inconsistent feet. Conditions will be clean with light winds and sea breezes though.

As a side note, I’ll be keeping an eye on the computer models through the rest of the week, as the European and US solutions are tipping a small low to form in the central Tasman Sea early in the weekend which (if the models move around) could end up being a swell producer for us. Right now chances are pretty slim as the models whisk the low away to the east, but in the absence of any notable surf, it’s worth reassessing this in more detail on Wednesday. 

Long term (Sep 29 onwards)

Nothing of any major interest on the long term charts at this stage. Hopefully Wednesday will have some better news!